"Examples of fair use in United States copyright law include commentary, search engines, criticism, parody, news reporting, research, and scholarship. Fair use provides for the legal, unlicensed citation or incorporation of copyrighted material in another author's work under a four-factor test."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_use
Copyleft which is the AGPL only cover distribution.
"Copyleft applies only when a person seeks to redistribute the program. Developers may make private modified versions with no obligation to divulge the modifications, as long as they do not distribute the modified software to anyone else. "
Those who wish to share their contributions will, regardless of license. Those who do not, will stick to code with BSD-style licenses.
This is AGPL or commercial.
The biggest difference I could find was not in the capability of it as a drop-in replacement but in the change of licence as any changes you might have to fit your needs now has different terms.
I guess the bet here is predicated on that... are companies running versions of memcached that are much improved and they're not sharing those improvements? Could this be a way to make those improvements public by this replacing memcached over time?
I'm not sure how they could do a commercial licence once they've accepted contributions, if they don't have a CLA granting the right over the contributions. But IANAL, etc.