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Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by hyperbovine on Thursday September 01, 2011 @10:02PM (#2952619)
Netflix without their ingenious DVD distribution mechanism is just a Starlight movie player on top of S3. Yes, that is a gross oversimplification, I don't see what's stopping somebody with deep pockets like Starz from coming along and building essentially the same thing. Why not cut out the middle-man?
Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by trunnell on Friday September 02, 2011 @02:42AM (#2953167)
I'm the engineering lead on the Silverlight player at Netflix. Honestly, I love it when people underestimate the complexity of the player. To me, it means we're doing a good job. 3+ years of releasing every 2 weeks and still no settings dialog. It always just does the right thing.

Regarding S3, S3 is not a CDN.

To your point about disintermediation, it's a good question. A direct to consumer play by the content owners would cut out Starz as well as Netflix. The last time the studios did that, it didn't end so well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_Pictures#1941.E2.80.9....

I can think of a couple good reasons it wouldn't work out today, either. I'd predict that the business model of a content silo would be less profitable than the current system. Studios make more money when they have multiple distribution channels; distributing their own goods would give rise to conflicting incentives. Also, you need the DNA of a software company to compete in the streaming space. Studios are built to make movies; Netflix (and Amazon) are built to make software, and it's software that powers streaming. Even if that software is almost invisible.

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by CamperBob on Friday September 02, 2011 @04:16AM (#2953352)
How come all of your objections (as well as US v Paramount) haven't applied to online game developers as well? Making movies is one hell of a lot easier than developing modern PC/console games, and the game studios are having no qualms with the direct-to-consumer model. Companies like Valve and EA were game developers and publishers long before they started offering services like Steam and Origin.

Ultimately, the same Internet that will kill the cable companies will also kill Netflix. (I have more confidence in Netflix to reinvent itself when the time comes, of course, since you've already done it once.)

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by trunnell on Saturday September 03, 2011 @07:34PM (#2958389)
My comment about software DNA is not central to my point, so I take that back.

Regarding the game business, it's not a good comparison. Selling games is like the DVD business: games are produced at a fixed cost and sold at nearly zero marginal cost. This is true of games sold on disc as well as games sold online through Steam.

But this is not how the movie streaming business works. Content is licensed, not sold. It's licensed to a single buyer for a fixed window of time. After that, it's licensed to someone else. This is why HBO, AMC, and Netflix will never be showing the same movie at the same time.

This is a profit maximization strategy by the studios. I doubt that major studios would make more profit with a direct to consumer model, at least not with one that would replace the windows in which Netflix typically buys content. It could potentially work for new releases, though. I'll leave the exact reasons why as an exercise to the reader.

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by jamesgeck0 on Friday September 02, 2011 @09:29AM (#2953996)
Valve and EA were software companies with experience delivering content over the internet before they started offering direct download services, though.
Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by CamperBob on Friday September 02, 2011 @08:48PM (#2956136)
Sure, but the point is, his "DNA" argument is a complete non-starter. Game studios have to do a ridiculous number of things that have nothing to do with the core business of game design, like rendering, physics, networking, tool development, and so on. The same's true of a few movie studios who've led the way for the rest. Are we supposed to believe that a Pixar or a LucasArts or a James Cameron is somehow incapable of developing and deploying a simple networked Silverlight player?

I hope that Netflix's long term business model doesn't depend on the answer to that question being "No, that's not in their DNA."

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by jmellicker on Tuesday September 13, 2011 @02:01AM (#2990157)
I agree that each content provider developing their own digital distribution system would be inefficient and confusing to the consumer, who desires a simple, centralized menu and search function to locate and view content.

It's nice that so many websites offer some kind of streaming video, but the friction of moving from site to site, each with their own navigation and search functions of varying quality, seems like as much trouble to most consumers as getting up and walking across the room to change channels on their TV.

Netflix has done a good job in aggregating content, although I don't believe they have a format and business model that is sustainable into the next decade.

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by buff-a on Thursday September 01, 2011 @10:29PM (#2952674)
Because unless those deep pockets actually release functioning players on Wii, PS3, XBox, iPad, OSX, Win 7, Samsung Blu-Ray players, then I wont be using their service. That's quite a barrier to entry. Not insurmountable, sure. Then they have to make sure I hear about it. Then get my credit card number. And you have to do all this in a recession when consumer sentiment is at an all time low. I'd love someone to do it, I just don't think its gonna happen.

In contrast there's itunes, where in theory I can watch movies that aren't on Netflix. But I don't. I'm not buying an apple TV when my TV is already overloaded with input. And because I can't watch it on my TV, I've never bothered to figure out how to do it on my Mac or my iPad. I have watched plenty of Netflix on my Mac though. Unfortunately, a new release movie for $9.99 is just not that much better than an old movie included in my monthly fee. $9.99 to rent a movie? Fuck. No.

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by rmc on Friday September 02, 2011 @07:41AM (#2953734)
Yes, that is a gross oversimplification, I don't see what's stopping somebody with deep pockets like Starz from coming along and building essentially the same thing

Less space than a Nomad, no wireless. Lame.

Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by Locke1689 on Thursday September 01, 2011 @11:52PM (#2952850)
Because people like us would go work for Netflix as developers because we know we'd be treated like first-class citizens. Starz? Who's leaving a job at Google to go work for Starz?
Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by Hovertruck on Friday September 02, 2011 @01:01AM (#2952977)
Hmm. I remember reading a lot of bad developer sentiment about the culture at Netflix. Any Netflix devs care to chime in?
Re:Netflix to lose Starz, its most valuable source of new mo... by trunnell on Friday September 02, 2011 @02:50AM (#2953183)
It really is just like the "freedom and responsibility culture" slide deck at http://www.netflix.com/Jobs

That deck isn't just aspirational, it's how the company actually runs.

So the answer is that Netflix is not for everyone. High performers and those who can take smart risks tend to like it. Those who prefer lots of process or are more risk averse tend not to.