If you're going strictly on number of transistors, I think we're still going up up and away. If you're talking about performance, which is what most folks really care about, we really are hitting thermal limits especially with consumer hardware.

AMD, Nvidia and intel are all hitting the 'heat wall' with their hardware just trying to cram more into smaller nodes and boost clocks. Nvidia's 4000 series cards are rumored to be 500W cards which is well into 'space heater' territory.

Transistor density/cost still helps with the inherently-parallel ML workloads.

Really?

http://www.transistorcount.com/

Slope seem a bit more gentle - but certainly not gone?

You're right about literal Moores Law, but its benefits are much diminished, of performance, power usage and cost. My understanding is the main problem is heat dissipation.

I've long predicted macrochips to solve this, brute force of huge quantities of silicon, but it hasn't really happened.

Graphics cards and neural accelerators have continued an exponential improvement in performance per watt dollar, which is the intuitive thing that people often mean when they say Moore's law.

If we hit a trillion transistors by 2030 without increasing chip size, I'll be shocked.

I guess it's inevitable that we'll reach a "hard" limit at some point, with exponential increase in density (electrons and photons have a "size"). But I don't know how that translates to current densities (how many atoms in a gate on the Apple m1 chips, and what is the theoretical minimum?).

Moore forecasted a doubling of transistor points but a halving of costs. The costs haven't been keeping on pace. https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-81fb704374c332ad5c5e27...

https://www.quora.com/If-the-Moores-law-is-slowing-down-can-...

Did he make a clear statement on cost? On a skim of: https://newsroom.intel.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/... I see costs mentioned - but I can't immediately see a clear statement - to tie it in with transistor increase - but I might be overlooking something?

On page two he charts cost per transistor dropping roughly an order of magnitude every 5 years. Since the the "law" of doubling transistors is on a two year time span, this roughly matches.