Re:Amount of Covid found in the wastewater in Boston
by mlyle on Tuesday December 07, 2021 @02:29AM
(#29469903)
Yah. Evolution is complicated.
Delta undoubtedly has many advantages, and disadvantages, over earlier variants that it outcompeted. That's why I said viral load is "a factor".
One thing that's interesting to me is how the selective pressures on pathogens change. Early on, adaptations that cause higher viral loads are often highly advantageous because they aid transmission-- this tends to be correlated with higher virulence, too. Later, as a smaller portion of the population is susceptible, and adaptations that are less virulent, have longer incubation periods, etc, can win.
It'll be interesting to learn about Omicron virulence and transmissibility. I wouldn't be surprised if it's less, like early reports hint at. However, disentangling this from partial immune escape, etc, is hard.
Delta undoubtedly has many advantages, and disadvantages, over earlier variants that it outcompeted. That's why I said viral load is "a factor".
One thing that's interesting to me is how the selective pressures on pathogens change. Early on, adaptations that cause higher viral loads are often highly advantageous because they aid transmission-- this tends to be correlated with higher virulence, too. Later, as a smaller portion of the population is susceptible, and adaptations that are less virulent, have longer incubation periods, etc, can win.
It'll be interesting to learn about Omicron virulence and transmissibility. I wouldn't be surprised if it's less, like early reports hint at. However, disentangling this from partial immune escape, etc, is hard.