I wonder how long their reign will last. Nothing lasts forever. But as long as the economy keep growing the party is safe. The chances of war with Taiwan will increase in a recession. The perfect distraction for domestic issues.

You all enjoy your daily dose of the two minute hate on China while they prep you to accept the next war over something that isn't in your interest. I don't want to be the China defender here (I think they have pluses and minuses), but the war propaganda has been relentless for about two years now and increasing in frequency. It (proximally) traces back to Obama's pivot to Asia, Trump's desire to pin responsibility for the COVID disaster on anyone but the US and populist nationalism, and Biden's continuation of both deflecting attention from COVID and satisfying the warlords and profiteers that hover around DC with their hand out. However, at its root is a pervasive cold-war anti-communism in the US elite (even if reasonable people can debate if China is really communist) combined with military Keynesianism that constructed the military industrial complex in the post-war era and diverts money intentionally from anything that would ever help any normal person.

It also is a hang over from the western imperialists being driven out during the Chinese revolution, beat at their game by poor peasants. Now they fear those peasants will set up a compelling and competing world trade system that will knock the decaying American Empire out of its bloody time in the sun.

The solution is really easy. Just laugh at the TV when they tell you to hate the people making your iPhone and go into the streets when they start firing shots in "defense" half-way around the world far outside their territorial waters like they always do.

The calculus is extra interesting because Xi won't invade unless he thinks the US will blink, a calculus Saddam famously got wrong when he invaded Kuwait.

I like your optimism, but are you forgetting Iran?

> What's looking increasingly likely, though, is that China under Xi will invade Taiwan, and then the US will be in the hard position of having to choose whether it will blink, or back up its pledges to defend the island with action.

It's a very specific scenario. Officially, Taiwan isn't an independent country, the US has no relations with them and doesn't have a pact of mutual assistance or promises to come to its aid. In case China invades what it and most of the world officially consider to be a part of China ( One China policy, almost all countries in the world recognise the PRC as the single China), the US can close its eyes and it wouldn't have violated any treaty or anything of the like, or they can join the war under some pretense.

> The calculus is extra interesting because Xi won't invade unless he thinks the US will blink, a calculus Saddam famously got wrong when he invaded Kuwait.

He got it wrong because the US, and most notably their ambassador to Iraq, shat the bed spectacularly bad leading him to believe he will get away with it. I recommend the Military Intelligence Blunders and Cover-Ups book, it had a chapter on that debacle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPLQNUVmq3o

Secondly the more important miss is that the Economist focuses on the economic and political aspect of celebrities. There's some superficial truth to that but the party isn't afraid of the political power of internet celebs. What they completely omit in the piece is the resurgence of a nationalist, Confucian focus on cultural values and virtue, creating a particular way of Chinese life, it's not about socialist economics.

There's been a strong crackdown on individuals or media that promote promiscuous women 'feminine men', homosexuality, divorce and a strong focus on imposing traditional moral, not economic values.

The net effect is the same though: the targets are deprived of their platform and their income.

Nope. If millions of people want you out of the public sphere that's different from a few politicians deciding they want you out of the public sphere. Saying those are the same is incredible short sighted and wrong. For example, the "braying twitter mobs" can't dis-appear anyone, or put them on a no-fly list.

There's some serious fucked up 1984 oceania was always at war with Eastasia shit going on in this econist pueces & these threads. the production, that there are similar forces, is horseshit. society expressing it's democratic view of whats ok versus leaders forcing cancellation, mandating what culture can be without any will of the people- one leads clearly to heaven & i like jefferson swear i will forever stand against tyranny. i refuse that hell. serious propoganda mind bending shit, bending way over to accomodate low petty stupid blunt authoriarianism.

to be clear, there are hella problems with inverted totalitarianism. there are dangers of mob rule, of dumber populist senses. but holy shit, the amount of efforts i see in these threads to horseshoe the issues around, to say that the two problems are the same, regardless of whether it's a few projecting narrow minded stupidity or a masser body- it's ignorant & stupid in the extreme to say these are at all the same. sure there may be some symptoms. but fuck this apologia, fuck saying they are the same, fuck this so much. one could not work harder to sabotage democracia.

What makes you think the CPP isn't "canceling" because those people are being "bad"?

It's actually the same. It's silencing people who don't adhere to an ideology.