> It's also very possible that transactions fees alone actually will be sufficient to support a high enough amount of hash power to secure the network.

I have to admit that I have no idea how much work is actually needed to secure the network. My point of view is that the current rate of energy expenditure outweighs whatever benefit Bitcoin does or could provide to society. But if this rate is a transient result of still-significant minting going on, things could definitely look different in the future.

Do you know of any analyses on how much work really has to be continuously expended in order for Bitcoin to remain reasonably secure at a given market capitalization?

I don't see why many nations would jump at the opportunity to make Bitcoin their monetary backbone. For example because an immutable monetary policy won't be seen as a feature.

> For example because an immutable monetary policy won't be seen as a feature.

Each nation would love to be able to manipulate the supply itself—why not, if people will let you get away with it?—but the fact that other nations can't do the same could be seen as a feature.

If that's how it's going to work, what stopped nations from making a treaty in which everyone commits to an immutable monetary policy so far? And how does Bitcoin result in whatever it was not being a showstopper anymore?

Many countries already use money internally such as the USD (outside the US) or Euro (outside the EU) for which they do not control the policy. Explicit agreements to use a common currency across nations and share control of the policy are relatively rare; no examples come to mind apart from the EU, and that hasn't always gone according to plan, as Greece can attest. But hard currency is still a fairly common basis for exchange between nation-states, and other countries' currencies are more likely to be adopted when they are governed by relatively immutable policies. Of course, if those policies change to be less immutable it can take time for the effects to manifest. The USD was relatively stable until recently, but other countries are probably reconsidering their dependence on it at this point given the increase in the supply over the past few years.

If Bitcoin does eventually become a common instrument of trade at this level it will fill the same niche currently occupied by gold and other precious metals.