Yeah, I join this startup because I expect it will fail!
Looking at the article the author bases their analysis on stock value growth of Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft - which are absolutely not typical/expected.
About 90% will fail. You should really be assuming that your options are worth basically zero. Basically zero ~= Basically zero with better downside protection.
For high performing tech companies - you absolutely don't want the loss of upside in the current market.
I think there is some legitimacy to this in a long-term company that experiences boom and bust cycles, though - things that come to mind for me are airlines, auto manufacturing, agriculture, etc.
This downside protection is a crappy deal.
Did you think you have to wait 4y to get stock?
Yes, delayed instead of immediate grants work fantastic when the company stock is increasing in value, sometimes spectacularly, but that doesn't always happen.
"Surely, declining stock value at startups is theoretical!" you say? Look no further than what happened with the Uber RSU debacle just late last year (2020), when Uber tried to do the right thing in helping its employees, but a falling stock price meant that employees lost out and ended up suing the company: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/nearly-200-uber-employees-su...