This feels like a very early post-WWII way of looking at conflict to me. If a conflict is in desperate need of help from countries across the ocean with no projection power themselves (ie. not the US), it's likely "a trip across the ocean with 2 refuelling stops" is going to be too little two late. If we want to contribute to ongoing conflicts then we need more than the ability to fly a jet out and maybe back.

The main thing that kind of capability is useful for is a first strike, I'm pretty sure. And I'd argue that's not the kind of thing Canada should be involving itself in.

You seem to have come up with a decision matrix (which is very different from my own), and that is much better than I can say for Canada's government!