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Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by elihu on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @04:50PM (#29335584)
> In the other camp are those who are quite concerned about the financial, economic, and political consequences if paper wealth reverts to historical norms in relation to global income.

What about the camp that is worried that paper wealth doesn't revert to norms? I mean, if a person doesn't already own a house, then inflated prices work against them.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by edgyquant on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @06:06PM (#29336265)
Yes this is a big problem in the west because the government has incentive to ensure the price of houses continue to go up. This is, apparently, especially an American problem where there’s a social stigma about renting (though it’s going away)
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by jb_s on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @11:27PM (#29338230)
Unsure about what it's like to rent in the US but in Australia it's horrible. Really weak laws around tenants rights.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by dbuder on Thursday November 25, 2021 @02:26AM (#29339015)
Semi strong laws but impossible to force a bad landlord/agent to follow them. Fair Trading are useless idiots.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by xwdv on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @04:56PM (#29335638)
That’s more of a personal problem. Paper wealth reverting to norms would be more of a societal problem, and thus is more important to prevent.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by geysersam on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:11PM (#29335771)
It's exactly the other way around. "Paper wealth" is nothing, everyone can get enormous wealth by adding five zeros to the dollar bills. It has no relation to the real world means of production, to the GDP. If house prices lose 80% tomorrow all factories will be intact, all people will still have the same skills to perform their work. The impact would be artificial. On the other hand, not being able to find ample living space is a real problem and a drag on the economy.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by TrainedMonkey on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @04:59PM (#29335663)
A class of people unable to afford a home sounds like a societal problem.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by sokoloff on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:08PM (#29335749)
A class of people unable to afford housing is a societal problem. Unable to purchase a home in a specific city is not nearly so obviously a problem. (Much of Europe seems happy to rent for life.)
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by linguae on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:33PM (#29335953)
But if economic opportunity is concentrated in cities that are too expensive for average working people to live in (even when renting instead of buying), then this is a societal problem. Even if the shift to working from home for some occupations becomes permanent, not all jobs can be performed from home.

While some metropolises such as Tokyo seem to be set up well for providing housing at a wide range of price points, others such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles do a much worse job; there are some people who regularly commute 2-3 hours each way from these metro areas because this is all they can afford, yet the job markets in the Central Valley (near the Bay Area) or the Inland Empire and Antelope Valley (both near Los Angeles) areas are rather anemic at best. For many of these people, the choice isn't between a condo in Fremont versus a single-family house in Tracy. Instead, it's an apartment in a place like Stockton or Modesto versus moving outside of the orbit of the Bay Area; that's how bad the housing crisis has gotten for many people.

The chief cause of this is zoning regulations and other policies in the Bay Area and Los Angeles that discourage denser development, thus encouraging sprawl further and further out; hence, the "drive until you qualify" phenomenon. The normalization of mega-commuting has social and environmental consequences.

Yes, there are cheaper metro areas, but these cheaper metro areas tend to offer fewer job opportunities compared to the more popular metro areas. Part of what fueled the social divide between "blue state" and "red state" America is economic opportunity being increasingly concentrated in a handful of coastal metro areas, while these opportunities have largely failed to trickle down to much of rural America and the Rust Belt.

What's needed are two solutions: 1. Change the zoning policies of certain metro areas in order to accommodate the demand through densification instead of sprawl. 2. Find ways to encourage the economic development of areas outside of the coasts.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by ericmay on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @09:32PM (#29337661)
With you almost all the way but:

> there are some people who regularly commute 2-3 hours each way from these metro areas because this is all they can afford, yet the job markets in the Central Valley (near the Bay Area) or the Inland Empire and Antelope Valley (both near Los Angeles) areas are rather anemic at best.

Just move. If you don’t, I find it hard to be sympathetic. Family w/e you can make it work. This is peak American bullshit to drive 2 hours each way to work and if you are putting up with that it’s on you.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by linguae on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @10:16PM (#29337874)
Yeah, there comes a point where someone must accept defeat regarding the Bay Area's unaffordability. Mega-commuting for more affordable housing sounds appealing on paper but quickly gets draining and is unsustainable, from both a personal and environmental standpoint. I used to commute 50 miles each way every day for a few months back in 2015 and ended up sucking it up and paying the higher rent to live closer to the office due to the effects the commute were having on me. I believe part of the reason why San Joaquin County had so many foreclosures in 2008 was because of mega-commuters dealing with $4+/gal gas for the first time.

I don't mind doing a long commute once or twice a week, especially when I have flexible work hours, but anything more often than that becomes draining.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by seanmcdirmid on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:41PM (#29336027)
What about a Singapore style solution? As a city state, they don't have the benefit of having anywhere else to go, so public housing schemes (government provides affordable apartments to rent, no short term speculations allowed) are the main way to go. Or we could make housing depreciate like in Tokyo (and allow for low end small rooms without central heating).
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by linguae on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:52PM (#29336137)
Sadly public housing in the United States has been a policy failure that's tied to our issues regarding poverty and race. The only way I see public housing working in an American context is if it was seen to benefit the middle class, kind of like how FHA loans and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs exist to help middle class households get mortgages with low down payments. I also know that some Bay Area municipalities have below-market rentals and for-purchase developments; some municipalities require all significant housing developments to set aside some below-market units.

Disclaimer: I grew up poor and I have relatives who lived in public housing; the environments they lived in were very rough, not only in terms of the quality of housing, but also in terms of living in crime-ridden neighborhoods. Now, I'm not saying that public housing has to be that way; I've heard good things about Singapore's public housing.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by seanmcdirmid on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @06:15PM (#29336328)
I don't think "public housing in the USA" and "public housing in Singapore" are the same thing at all. The former was rent subsidized or even free housing given to the poor. The latter is probably subsidized socially, but is aimed at the middle class and involves letting people "buy housing" from the government, they aren't slums that are given away.

The only thing that Americans might hate about it is that they are universally 30 story concrete apartment buildings that Singapore is selling to its citizens at affordable costs. If you want detached, that is the private market and will cost a lot.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by refurb on Thursday November 25, 2021 @01:19AM (#29338700)
Singapore's public housing system is out of control as well. If you meet income requirements you can buy an HDB. Currently backlog for new HDBs is ~4-5 years. You can't buy one unless you are married or over 35 years old. One new HDB development was 10x oversubscribed. Highly desirable HDBs are like winning a lottery, after 5 years you can sell and keep the appreciation (gov't is looking to clawback in the future). People "COV = cash over value" to get HDBs on the secondary market. 1000 sq ft HDBs can cost $1M SGD.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by klipt on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:41PM (#29336029)
> But if economic opportunity is concentrated in cities that are too expensive for average working people to live in

Maybe an "opportunity" that doesn't provide a living wage isn't actually an opportunity at all?

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by aorloff on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @08:48PM (#29337405)
3rd solution (in addition) - invest in rail to areas with cheaper housing and more land. If BART went to Stockton for example.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by linguae on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @09:59PM (#29337789)
There are some rail options for those commuting from Stockton:

- The Amtrak San Joaquins train (https://www.amtrak.com/san-joaquins-train) connects Stockton with Richmond, where passengers can transfer to BART.

- For those headed to Silicon Valley, the Altamont Commuter Express runs from Stockton to San Jose (https://acerail.com)

I'm looking forward to the California High Speed Rail project being completed. This will make a commute from places like Merced, Madera, and Fresno much more feasible. Currently it's possible to drive from San Jose to Fresno in less than three hours; the bullet train will likely cut the duration of this trip by half.

I agree with you; it would be nice to see some nice transit-oriented developments spring up around train stations in the Central Valley.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by clippablematt on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:28PM (#29335919)
Much of Europe has to rent for life, but isn’t happy about it.

(at least in my experience of like everyone I know).

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by sokoloff on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:44PM (#29336060)
I’ve got a couple close friends who relocated to Europe and many colleagues. All are in high-tech and all seem perfectly content to rent (which I don’t understand but my close friends assure me it’s the case [and when something breaks or leaks in my house, I do understand some of the appeal]).
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by csomar on Thursday November 25, 2021 @06:53AM (#29340552)
Maybe they are happy to rent because they are temporarily in Europe?
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by zajio1am on Thursday November 25, 2021 @10:04AM (#29341941)
Not really. In EU, 70 % of population owns, while 30 % rents:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/bloc-1a.h...

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by diffeomorphism on Thursday November 25, 2021 @01:59AM (#29338894)
Same difference. Rent prices and house prices are tied. If houses are unaffordable, so is rent.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by shmel on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:15PM (#29335802)
> Paper wealth reverting to norms would be more of a societal problem

What is the problem again? Rich people getting less rich? Imaginary number of net wealth getting lower?

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by mullingitover on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @06:11PM (#29336308)
2008 showed us where this road goes. The wealthy are the tiniest sliver of the group of people whose lives will be ruined. If anything, when the dust settles the truly wealthy (those whose wealth isn't riding on leverage) will end up even wealthier because they'll be sitting on capital that they can use to buy up even more assets at fire sale rates.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by chii on Thursday November 25, 2021 @12:47AM (#29338567)
> truly wealthy (those whose wealth isn't riding on leverage)

incredibly convenient to just dismiss those people who lost wealth this way, and claim that the "truly wealthy" is to be blamed.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by mullingitover on Friday November 26, 2021 @05:24PM (#29354852)
I...did neither of those things?
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by strken on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:45PM (#29336073)
Here are a few obvious problems:

- retirement plans often rely on equity from real estate, and so do some nursing home admissions

- as per 2008, when people have more money remaining on a mortgage than the underlying asset (home) is worth, some of them will declare bankruptcy

- when rich people suddenly have a lot less nominal cash, they can't fund their businesses by liquidating assets, so they cut costs, and then those costs have to find new jobs, which can take years and is hugely disruptive for everyone[0]

Overall there's an argument to be made for doing it anyway, but there are pretty clear downsides to causing an economic crisis, even if the economy eventually reaches a better equilibrium state.

[0] note that I'm not supporting trickle-down economics, just warning about the disruption that suddenly changing the distribution of wealth will cause

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by flipbrad on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:28PM (#29335917)
A fair few pension funds and charitable endowments have wealth locked up in property. Not saying that alone justifies protecting asset values, but it does have societal significance worth bearing in mind.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by JacobThreeThree on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @04:58PM (#29335656)
Translation: too bad, you'll never own anything.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by 01100011 on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @07:09PM (#29336775)
I don't think that's so bad unless you need that ownership to build wealth. In this country, it seems a lot of our wealth was built up via land ownership. Contrast the US, which encouraged wider land ownership, with Mexico which granted land to a wealthy few and excluded the lower classes.

If we can come up with a consistent policy scheme(taxation and incentives) which can undo land ownership as being a sure-fire way to build wealth(maybe a land value tax?) then it's perhaps not so bad to have a nation of renters.

Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by twiddling on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @06:04PM (#29336242)
Just eat lentils and be frugal
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by spaetzleesser on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:26PM (#29335899)
I guess you loved 2008 bailouts then and will be happy to bail out wealthy people again next crash.
Re:Low interest rates in advanced countries have pushed mone... by literallyWTF on Wednesday November 24, 2021 @05:10PM (#29335757)
Ah yes, let’s lock out entire swaths of people from being able to purchase any sort of permanent dwelling. All hail our glorious landlords.