It doesn't matter. People have convinced themselves these measures must work or "the experts" wouldn't have recommended doing them. The reality is they are participating in a giant uncontrolled experiment. There is probably a reason no society ever attempted to do this in the past (and probably will never do it again in the future). It doesn't work, and if it did, the benefits are so minute that they don't outweigh the immense societal costs.

The very fact that people can legitimately question the efficiency of lockdowns means they aren't worth it. For lockdowns to be worth the cost their effect should be so apparent and dramatic that any reasonable person looking at the data would see it was worth it. If you need PhD level math to discern the difference between your control and test groups.... it means even if lockdowns work they aren't worth the cost.