This depends on the market and the trade. Not all are equally competitive. Might have to investigate your area but look into plumbing, HVAC, carpentry and others. If you don't care about the nature of the work, go with the most promising prospect. If you do, then explore them, watch youtube accounts of the job, etc. Personally I think the downside is longer hours (typically) and often shift-work.

Since you're asking on HN I expect you're not averse to programming either. Can be competitive at Junior level. Take a free course at freecodecamp or whatever, will give you some idea whether it's worth pursuing. People will often say "contribute to open source" but without a frame of reference you'll just feel lost, so either take a course or start your own project first.

There are some other high-turnover gigs like corrections. I don't know if I'd recommend this, but it wouldn't take you long to get in. Expect overcrowding, violence, and stress.

There's literally 20 jobs open on Indeed right now in Indy for electricians helpers, which is basically the step to apprenticeship. Same for other trades. You don't need a school, just go do it. It's hard work but you can go out and get a job today that will lead you there. You might need a GED but it's literally just a test, go take it.

I'm seeing starting pay ranges bottoming out at $11 an hour to $14 an hour, which is as much as an $8 an hour pay cut, also less than fast food is currently paying with zip codes 30~ miles away. The one that lists $11 an hour as the low end requests 5 years of experience.

It doesn't sound like you're looking for answers, it sounds like you just are frustrated and want to vent. That's cool, but it's a different problem than "how do you start a new career with minimal qualifications". You're going to have to sacrifice something if you want to switch careers. As a 38 year old myself I feel your pain, but I've often thought about going back to manual labor to get into the trades. I used to stock shelves and bake pies and it was pretty satisfying work.

I'm looking for answers, I'm not looking for some arm-chair expert that assumes a person asking a question has done zero research and wants to throw out an answer an article or guidance counselor told them about years ago.

You just told me to take a 90 minute commute, at an $8 an hour pay cut, to go into a "kinda" apprenticeship that is asking for 5 years of experience in the job posting.

> I've often thought about going back to manual labor to get into the trades

Easy to pontificate what you don't do. I think a substantial wage cut in the interim is a serious concern and sussing out all the options is not tantamount to "making excuses".