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Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @04:56PM (#29300145)
> A full course, which needs to start within five days of the appearance of symptoms, consists of forty pills—four capsules taken twice a day, for five days.

I don't understand the logic involved here. Why would anyone be willing to take 40 pills for 5 days straight but unwilling to get a vaccine shot?

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by coolso on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:48PM (#29300553)
Two huge reasons: one, ingesting a potentially harmful substance has almost always been considered far less dangerous than getting it injected into you. Hence aversion to needles, blood, etc. Ever seen COPS? Even the most experienced police officer will “freak” at the sight or suspicion of a needle and everything changes.

Secondly, and this one applied to me: given how new the vaccine is, and the slight chance of heart inflammation and blood clotting among other things, many people would rather passively get COVID through no fault of their own, and very likely recover from it easily like most, rather than purposefully get a shot which means they’re directly playing a role in, in their mind, potentially bringing harm to themselves.

I waited 8 months of general availability of the vax, and then I was comfortable enough with the (lack of) side effects to overcome fear #2.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:52PM (#29300583)
I guess that makes sense but the side-effects seem overblown in my opinion. Even with being susceptible to the side-effects it is very unlikely that catching the virus unwittingly is going to be better. I haven't found any studies on comparative outcomes with respect to the virus vs the vaccine when it comes to side-effects but whatever I could find so far indicates that for those that are susceptible to the side-effects of the vaccine the virus is much worse because it attacks all tissues indiscriminately. [1]

1: https://epi.ufl.edu/articles/covid-19-blood-vessel-damage.ht...

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by CodeWriter23 on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:48PM (#29301399)
> I haven't found any studies on comparative outcomes with respect to the virus vs the vaccine when it comes to side-effects<snip>

Since nearly all academic research is funded by pharma, you will never find research that goes against pharma that is sourced from an institutional setting. And those outside that system who do publish their studies are swiftly labeled as quacks by the pharma PR apparatus, and pursued by captured state licensing boards professionally. And I might add, such character assassination is readily repeated without scrutiny by many smart individuals.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:59PM (#29301481)
What point are you actually making? I didn't say there would be no comparative studies but that I had been unable to find any using my amateur research skills. If you have any data and references then present them and we can discuss whether they're valid or not.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by CodeWriter23 on Monday November 22, 2021 @06:50PM (#29313004)
If you’re interested, lookup FLCCC. They have been tracking small scale, non-institutional studies from a frontline perspective on a wide variety of issues related to Coronavirus. And have also been dismissed and persecuted in the manner I described.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Tuesday November 23, 2021 @01:49PM (#29321605)
I'm not interested in people that think they're constantly being dismissed and persecuted.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by coolso on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:08PM (#29300699)
Well, hindsight is 20/20. Speaking to my own thought process, many a drug/theory scientists were “sure” about, until it turned out they were wrong. Couple that with the fact I know closely plenty of people who got the Wuhan coronavirus and weren’t vaccinated, and it was like a typical cold for them, with sone slight difference like temporary loss of smell.

But, I also knew a couple family/friends of friends who were older and obese who were hospitalized from it.

I agree that the side effects are overblown. But so is much of the hand wringing over getting the vaccine or not getting it.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:17PM (#29300776)
Which specific drugs and therapies are you talking about? I followed the development of the vaccine and it was clear from day 1 that this was the safest vaccine that scientists had ever managed to develop. It's really a marvel of biological engineering. The same techniques are now being utilized to develop therapies for cancer and HIV. [1]

1: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28101688/

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by coolso on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:29PM (#29301262)
I'm referencing drugs, and scientific theories, in the past, not specifically these vaccines:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_withdrawn_drugs

Here also is a CNN article titled "Past vaccine disasters show why rushing a coronavirus vaccine now would be 'colossally stupid'" from just a year ago (prior to the election) listing several instances of vaccines-gone-wrong:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/eua-coronavirus-vaccin...

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by coolso on Sunday November 21, 2021 @09:15PM (#29301979)
> The CNN article is about rushing approval before there was data available

Or, it was about spreading FUD before the election, the very same FUD they'll crucify you for today. (For the record I agree with the article. But the bias is clear given the context regarding when it was released.)

> The example given in the article is about vaccines with attenuated viruses and mRNA vaccines are not attenuated viruses which removes a whole bunch of safety issues, hence why these vaccines are the safest form of viral therapy that has been developed by biologists and virologists.

And, yet, what they all have in common is they're vaccines, made by human beings, who are not infallible. Hence the reticence by many in the general public, including myself, to rush to go get one. We're not really disagreeing here, but I'm giving you a window into the mind of those who aren't as quick to endorse an injection into their body as you are, or as I was after waiting half a year.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @09:29PM (#29302065)
I never said I rushed to get the vaccine. I had been infected twice in the first few waves so I knew I was immune. I just got the vaccine because I knew it was safe and it would give me a boost against the oncoming future waves of infection since it was also clear that there would not be enough vaccine uptake for herd immunity and I wanted to hedge my bets and make sure I was immune to whatever variant the vaccine was designed for.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:38PM (#29301328)
The CNN article is about rushing approval before there was data available to show that it was safe for large scale deployment. Following the development of the vaccine convinced me that the folks working on Project Warpspeed [1] went above and beyond in making sure everyone was following strict protocols in gathering data to verify safety and efficacy. The example given in the article is about vaccines with attenuated viruses and mRNA vaccines are not attenuated viruses which removes a whole bunch of safety issues, hence why these vaccines are the safest form of anti-viral immune therapy that has been developed by modern science.

1: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-319

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by nradov on Monday November 22, 2021 @12:13AM (#29303006)
I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but vaccines don't reliably prevent infection. Many vaccinated people get infected, and some fraction of those experience severe symptoms. Especially older patients with other medical conditions. So it's good to have additional therapies.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @12:24AM (#29303065)
I've repeatedly said in this thread that the vaccine preps the immune system so that the body is able to fight off the real virus because it has already been prepped ahead of time. No vaccine can ever prevent infection because that's not how immune systems work. Being vaccinated does not prevent inhaling live viral particles. I'm curious to know why you think being infected even after vaccination is such a big deal?
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by nradov on Monday November 22, 2021 @01:27AM (#29303448)
Did you even read my comment? For most patients, COVID-19 isn't a big deal. However some vaccinated patients do suffer severe symptoms or death.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

You appear to be dangerously ignorant of how vaccines work. Obviously no vaccine can prevent exposure. However many other vaccines such as that for measles are highly sterilizing, in that they prevent the virus from establishing an active infection in the body. Unfortunately the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines aren't sterilizing to any significant extent.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @02:16AM (#29303723)
I really like how you hedge that mRNA vaccines aren't "sterilizing to any significant extent" as if that invalidates what I said because obviously there is no such thing as a sterilizing vaccine. [1] All vaccines simply generate an immune response and don't confer magical powers on the immune system like preventing infections. Anyone with basic understanding of biology can derive that conclusion from first principles about viruses and immune systems.

Here are the actual stats in the US on how many people have died after vaccination

> Since more than 338 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the USA, this data reflects a vaccination-death ratio of 0.0018%. [2]

You can compare that to all other risk factor for death if you want but it turns out that getting the vaccine is basically the single most effective way of preventing death from a novel and highly contagious airborne respiratory virus.

But you're entitled to your opinions. To each their own I guess.

1: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/steriliz...

2: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/covid-19-vaccine-relat...

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by nradov on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:24AM (#29304096)
You seem to be intentionally dense. The vaccines have are highly effective in preventing deaths for most people, but not all. Thus additional treatments are still needed. If you still can't understand such a basic concept then I don't know how else to explain it.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:38AM (#29304184)
This treatment is after they get infected. Do you understand what that means? There is no causal chain of events where the pills are better than the vaccine. If the vaccine kills you then so will the virus. If the vaccine doesn't kill you then your chances of death are now significantly lower. You are more likely to die in a car crash than from the vaccine.

All the pills are going to do is convince some suckers to pay up for a treatment that they could have avoided if they'd gotten a free vaccine. There are no situations in which the pills are any better, all they do is lower the chances of death when people inevitably get infected because they refused to get the vaccine. At best the pills are a palliative measure which I guess is better than nothing but is not a substitute for a vaccine.

Anyway, I'm done with this thread. We're not getting anywhere.

These pills are not even a long term solution. Repeatedly using them introduces mutations in human DNA:

> A drug that’s so good at messing with viral RNA has led some to ask whether it messes with human DNA, too. (Merck’s trial excluded pregnant and breast-feeding women, and women of childbearing age had to be on contraceptives.) This is a long-standing concern about antiviral drugs that introduce genomic errors. A recent study suggests that molnupiravir, taken at high doses and for extended periods, can, in fact, introduce mutations into DNA.

So every dosing regiment of the pills means you are upping your chances of getting cancer. This is exactly the type of trade-off I would expect to be made by people who have no clue how vaccines work.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by detaro on Monday November 22, 2021 @10:34PM (#29314318)
nowhere has nradov argued for pills instead of vaccine. But rather for having treatment options for those cases that get ill despite being vaccinated. Whereas you seem to argue as if they had to be mutually exclusive.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Tuesday November 23, 2021 @12:12PM (#29320324)
Great, then we're all in agreement but it might be worthwhile for the rest of the folks in this thread to read a few wiki pages about the immune system and how vaccines work. It would reduce a lot of confusion for them.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by smt88 on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:34PM (#29300451)
It is a lot easier to get someone to take drugs when they're feeling sick than when they're feeling healthy.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:45PM (#29300533)
Seems very irrational but I agree it explains the logic of the people who are hopeful they are somehow immune to getting sick from an endemic virus.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by maxerickson on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:59PM (#29301054)
Right. And vaccination won't help very much if they change their mind after they get sick.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by rkk3 on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:08PM (#29300701)
as YC says, better to sell a pain-killer than a vitamin
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by pwg on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:19PM (#29300328)
Possibly the difference between "I (metaphorical "I") don't think I will encounter it." vs. "Oh ...., I have contracted a case of it from somewhere."?

Many often change their attitude when things go from "an unknown risk of possible future encounter" to "certain to have contracted".

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:22PM (#29300359)
The virus is endemic so we're already in the certain scenario. That's why I don't understand the logic of people that refuse vaccination. You can either take 40 pills for 5 days or you can get vaccinated and avoid the hassle entirely. Deferring the decision just guarantees you will take the 40 pills, there is no way to avoid contracting the virus anymore.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:34PM (#29300458)
Or you can do neither and if you are otherwise healthy it isn't much to worry about.

Conversely, people with other health problems or who are terrified of covid might get both.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:37PM (#29300480)
Being otherwise healthy is no guarantee that you are not genetically susceptible to cytokine storm reaction to the virus. The vaccine preps the immune system to avoid over-reacting, whether you are otherwise healthy or not does not really make a difference because no one can control their genetics and how it will interact with novel viruses. [1]

1: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra2026131

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by nradov on Monday November 22, 2021 @01:46AM (#29303566)
While cytokine storms do occur in some cases that is not the primary mechanism of death.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82862-5

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @02:33AM (#29303812)
Where did I say it was?
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:52PM (#29300584)
Being otherwise healthy is a massive factor in outcome though, and reduces the risk an order of magnitude or so, to levels many people don't care about very much.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @05:55PM (#29300602)
The point is that even for healthy individuals the odds are stacked against them if they catch the actual virus instead of getting the vaccine and prepping their immune system ahead of time. [1]

1: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/fit-and-health...

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:12PM (#29300736)
I don't think the odds are stacked against them at all. The odds are stacked for them. Unless you are using an unusual meaning of the phrase -- the odds are actually stacked for even most people who do have co-morbidities.

I'm not sure what your link demonstrates. I didn't say that healthy people can't die from covid.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:21PM (#29300802)
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/odds+are+stacked+agains...

The odds are stacked against them as in they are less likely to survive if they contract the virus without being vaccinated. Outward appearance of health are unrelated to cytokine storms because cytokine storms are a confluence of genetic factors and viral DNA and unrelated to any outward appearances of health. In any case, the links I've presented are evidence enough for me to be convinced that vaccination is the right answer and if you're not convinced then that's fine. We can agree to disagree about the risk factors.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by jacobmischka on Sunday November 21, 2021 @06:56PM (#29301036)
I am absolutely pro-vaccine in all circumstances, but you are not using the phrase "odds stacked against them" correctly.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:04PM (#29301088)
Given that there is a highly virulent novel virus, the odds are stacked against the anti-vaxxers because if you believe that you can somehow avoid getting infected then you are not calculating probabilities properly and so you are underestimating the odds of contracting the virus and surviving, i.e. the odds are stacked against them and they don't realize it.

Now, how exactly am I using the phrase incorrectly?

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:12PM (#29301149)
You moved the goal posts. Go over the thread again. Look at what you wrote. We were talking about the risk of death.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:14PM (#29301163)
Quoting myself so it's clear

> ...so you are underestimating the odds of contracting the virus and surviving, i.e. the odds are stacked against them and they don't realize it.

Explain how I'm using it incorrectly.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:19PM (#29301193)
The previous poster already explained how it is incorrect to say the odds are stacked against a healthy unvaccinated person who gets the virus. Can you elaborate what else you need explained?
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:21PM (#29301210)
Yes, explain what is wrong with my statement. Where exactly is the error? Write it out and bracket the parts that are incorrect.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:26PM (#29301239)
"Given that there is a highly virulent novel virus, [the odds are stacked against the anti-vaxxers] because if you believe that you can somehow avoid getting infected then you are not calculating probabilities properly and so you are underestimating the odds of contracting the virus and surviving, i.e. [the odds are stacked against them] and they don't realize it."

Previous poster explained why the odds are not stacked against unvaccinated people who are otherwise healthy.

Hopefully that clears everything up for you.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Sunday November 21, 2021 @07:31PM (#29301274)
Yes, thank you very much. It's all very clear now. I was definitely using the phrase incorrectly but, to be fair, the odds were stacked against me as a non-native speaker.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by jacobmischka on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:22AM (#29304088)
Now you're getting it!
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:38AM (#29304187)
I was being sarcastic.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by jacobmischka on Monday November 22, 2021 @07:08AM (#29305498)
I know, but that was correct in that reply.

Seriously, despite it being more likely for an unvaccinated person to have serious adverse effects than a vaccinated person, overall an unvaccinated person is still more likely to not have serious adverse effects than to have them. Regardless of the relative difference, the absolute odds is what the phrase is referring to.

The "odds being stacked against" something declares that one is very likely to experience an unfavorable outcome, stacked suggesting a strong disadvantage.

Again, I fully agree with all of your points, you are correct in all points except the usage of that particular phrase.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by throwawaylinux on Monday November 22, 2021 @09:28PM (#29313977)
Which points do you agree with? Surely not that there is a binary choice that people who get covid must either have been vaccinated or they take these new drugs (but not both)?
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by rsynnott on Monday November 22, 2021 @02:49PM (#29310839)
There's nothing like an imminent meeting with a ventilator to concentrate one's mind.

Obviously, also, there are breakthrough cases, though most which result in hospitalization are in immunocompromised people; not sure if they've trialed this for them or not. At any rate it would be better than nothing.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:32PM (#29311264)
Ya, I wasn't thinking about the death angle but you make a good point about tests in immunocompromised individuals. The article mentions the drug is basically a mutagen so in theory it is supposed to work in cases where the vaccine would be too risky but then I have to wonder how quickly a person is supposed to go on the regimen before the viral load is too great for the mutagen to make a difference. Basically this only works when you are already sick and in no other cases because then you're just dosing yourself with a mutagen.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by rsynnott on Monday November 22, 2021 @10:29PM (#29314301)
> it is supposed to work in cases where the vaccine would be too risky

It's very, very unusual that someone can't be given any of the covid vaccines (in general, even if you're allergic to the ingredients in one, another will be suitable). Immunocompromised people are generally vaccinated (they're one of the first groups that most countries did) but it's questionable how effective the vaccine is in them; it is, at best, likely less effective than in the general population. And, certainly, in heavily vaccinated countries, ICUs are largely a mix of the few unvaccinated, and vaccinated people who are either immunocompromised or have very severe health problems. Antivirals have an obvious role to play, there.

Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by holonomically on Tuesday November 23, 2021 @01:48PM (#29321591)
Good points.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by angelzen on Monday November 22, 2021 @10:03AM (#29307000)
For example because some got the vaccine shot and got infected too? The vaccine offers middling protection against infection.
Re:How will the covid pills change the pandemic? by haspoken on Monday November 22, 2021 @03:39AM (#29304195)