> If you want to predict the future accurately, you should be an incrementalist and accept that human nature doesn’t change along most axes. Meaning that the future will look a lot like the past. If Cicero were transported from ancient Rome to our time he would easily understand most things about our society.

This is, I think the heart of the issue. Human nature is pretty constant. We can change our environment or trade offs (for example at one time if you wanted to avoid pregnancy, the trade off was don’t have sex, now it is take a pill, hence the leveling out of our population).