10 years of whatever this has been

Re:10 years of whatever this has been by XorNot on Thursday November 18, 2021 @01:17AM (#29262495)

You are not addressing the point: having enough capital to support a completely valid short position against an irrational market is staggeringly hard to do, to the point the most reliable short in history was still in danger of wiping out the person who was right about it and ended up making a huge amount of money from it.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:10 years of whatever this has been by fossuser on Thursday November 18, 2021 @10:08AM (#29266243)

It’s somewhat of a tired point.

You’re right of course and Michael Burry made a great trade recognizing the CDO issue and bad incentives around reselling mortgages leading to banks giving mortgages to people that couldn’t afford them and not taking the risk directly.

It was also time bounded (he knew when the rates would change and they’d start to fail).

That said, people often use the “market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” line as an excuse - basically to say they’re right about an “impending crash” on an infinite timeline. If you can’t predict it within a bounded timeframe than your prediction is useless and ultimately equivalent to predicting nothing.

In the case of the OP he was clearly wrong, and instead of updating is spinning it as he was kinda right anyway. I think that’s dumb.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:10 years of whatever this has been by XorNot on Thursday November 18, 2021 @06:07PM (#29271762)

Which might be relevant if it was 20 years later, but it's not. Tesla's stock run-up preceded a number of unprecedented events that are all notably not associated with it's actual fiscal success. So it's incredibly vapid to a year later saying "see! It's not going to crash!"

I mean sure...put your money where your mouth is on that one, but I'm not buying TSLA at $1096 per share.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:10 years of whatever this has been by fossuser on Friday November 19, 2021 @07:56PM (#29284584)

The claim was that Tesla wouldn’t ship Model 3s successfully and would fail. That claim is false.

The stock price today may be a bubble, I don’t know. But Burry’s comments were before the current run up.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:10 years of whatever this has been by XorNot on Saturday November 20, 2021 @10:03AM (#29288671)

The original comment was nothing about Burry. Burry is relevant because he did sucessfully make money off the GFC by spotting the issue. Barely: he was facing stockholder revolt over the fees involved in maintaining the position, even though it resolved.

Which is the point: the market can (generally) remain irrational longer then you can remain solvent. Even when you're right.

[ Parent | on HN ]