Re:Covid-19 vaccine benefits exaggerated, say experts
by necovek on Sunday November 14, 2021 @04:06PM
(#29220710)
It's obvious this article is glancing over the real truth as well. Eg. for Pfizer, in the placebo group, 0,88% experienced COVID symptoms. Yet Moderna and AstraZeneca tests had a 1,2/1,3% absolute risk reduction, indicating that their placebo controls had a significantly higher rate of COVID symptoms than the Pfizer trial.
This only tells us one thing: these early trials were non-representative, and could only be used as signals that vaccines do help. Later results based on much larger numbers provide better indications. It makes one wonder why did the article not cover those?
Is it disingenious to not use ARR? Well, a 1% absolute reduction from 95% death rate is not something to write home about, yet ARR of 1% on 1.1% death rate definitely is. As such, a relative reduction rate is a much better indicator as a single number: 95% relative reduction rate is simple to interpret (1 out of 20 people would experience symptoms that would have done so without a vaccine).
First thing to remember is that the risk of COVID comes from it being highly transmissive, and not highly deadly. Only because of that have vulnerable groups been heavily infected and thus the absolute death numbers are large.
This only tells us one thing: these early trials were non-representative, and could only be used as signals that vaccines do help. Later results based on much larger numbers provide better indications. It makes one wonder why did the article not cover those?
Is it disingenious to not use ARR? Well, a 1% absolute reduction from 95% death rate is not something to write home about, yet ARR of 1% on 1.1% death rate definitely is. As such, a relative reduction rate is a much better indicator as a single number: 95% relative reduction rate is simple to interpret (1 out of 20 people would experience symptoms that would have done so without a vaccine).
First thing to remember is that the risk of COVID comes from it being highly transmissive, and not highly deadly. Only because of that have vulnerable groups been heavily infected and thus the absolute death numbers are large.