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A comment on How to invest without knowing the future. Parent comment

Re:How to invest without knowing the future by rootusrootus on Friday November 12, 2021 @10:35AM (#29200274)
AFAIK, historically it has always ended up better to remain invested in the market. People have been predicting a catastrophe for so long now that it's hard to take them that seriously, I just assume they are missing some important detail which explains why they are always wrong. So I keep everything but my emergency fund invested, and avert my eyes from the news stories proclaiming the end is nigh. Worst case, I end up working longer than I'd like -- unless the world really does collapse, I have marketable skills that should at least pay subsistence money.
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Re:How to invest without knowing the future by Workaccount2 on Friday November 12, 2021 @10:41AM (#29200355)
It's better if you are OK waiting 15 years to get back to where you were if a major crash is immanent.

Or a Japan situation where it took 30 years, thanks to stagflation, which we have all the ingredients for right now.

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Re:How to invest without knowing the future by batshit_beaver on Friday November 12, 2021 @11:37AM (#29201201)
Japan has been experiencing deflation, not stagnation, for the last couple decades. Of the two, stagflation is decidedly better because you can protect yourself from it through diversification.

Deflation just means hoard cash and hope you outperform literally every asset.

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Re:How to invest without knowing the future by MeinBlutIstBlau on Friday November 12, 2021 @10:41AM (#29200364)
>AFAIK, historically it has always ended up better to remain invested in the market.

It always has. Historically everything goes up. What everybody forgets in this scenario is what if a sizeable chunk of your liquid assets are tied up in investments during a crash and you're 5-10 years to retirement? You're seriously going to wait another 10 years for the market to correct itself to then cash out so you don't lose any money? No you might even be dead before you even have the chance to use it.

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Re:How to invest without knowing the future by vineyardmike on Friday November 12, 2021 @04:11PM (#29204576)
There are alternatives (mostly diversification). Eg. Bonds won't lose value when stocks do typically, and def by lower swings. But if you're really close to retirement, it may be good to hold cash - only if you actually think cash is the right way to store wealth in retirement, which may not be best.
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