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Re:Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt by lordnacho on Tuesday November 02, 2021 @01:55PM (#29084926)
I'd say number 2 is a long shot. Political risk is not terribly simple. Eg I worked for a firm that thought the Iraq war would mean oil would rocket and markets crater, didn't go down that way. Point is even if the thing you think will happen happens, the effect is not as obvious as you think. More examples are the monthly NFP figures, you might naively think job losses means economy is doing badly, thus market goes down. But it's rarely that clear.

4 you have to ask yourself about real rates, not nominal rates. Yes you want to get paid interest, but you also have a loss on inflation. Also, you pay tax on nominal but you don't get a credit on inflation.

What you really want to think about is whether rates will get so high that people can't afford to refinance, and are thus forced to sell.

As sad as it sounds, you may want to look into that forced seller thing. When someone hits hard times, it gets even harder due to them having to sell at a loss compared to the market, which for you as a buyer is straight up money in your pocket. See about your local foreclosure markets, I think a lot of them might still be done in an old fashioned show-up-in-real-life and shout way. Depends on where you live.

Finally, it's good to list risks as you do. The big question though, is always whether the market already reflects your thoughts.

Re:Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt by ineedasername on Tuesday November 02, 2021 @02:19PM (#29085299)
>forced seller

This takes a bit more patience though. They can drag on for a while as the bank & "owner" possibly reconcile or the owner fights things tooth & nail. These deals tend to fall through a bit more than traditional sales. Given patience though, you can get a good deal: Banks don't want to be in the business of actually owning houses & their carrying costs, so they generally sell at a market-clearing rate instead of waiting for the best possible offer.

Re:Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt by bink on Tuesday November 02, 2021 @02:38PM (#29085578)
2 is not only a long shot but it's also not like if there were a third world war there would be some asset classes that escaped unscathed. If China went to war and that somehow crashed real estate prices, it's not like stocks would be soaring.
Re:Zillow seeks to sell 7k homes for $2.8B after flipping halt by BuckRogers on Tuesday November 02, 2021 @04:25PM (#29086913)
My scenario isn't meant to be WW3. It's just a conflict over Taiwan, presuming that it doesn't spiral into WW3. WW3 changes everything in such ways, my home ownership doesn't matter. Good chance my city is bombed and I die. What I'm focused on is the chance of a temporary dip in the market as I'm interested in buying in the short term (12-24 months).

How into the geopolitics of China-US relations are you? I ask because my reason that we're at high risk for a conflict and now low over Taiwan is that China just upgraded their navy, while we have a refresh going on right now. Once that investment is complete China will have essentially the window closed on any hope of winning the conflict. They have to move relatively quickly to have a realistic chance at taking over Taiwan, if US determination is resolute in stopping them at least. It could happen at any time.