Your comment is a useful corrective to the idea that China is certain to win a conflict over Taiwan. Or even that it is more likely than not to: if a victory were seen as probable, the CCP would have initiated a conflict yesterday.

But I think your point of view goes a bit too far in the other direction and is too sanguine for the US.

China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second. In 1940, the US was first, with Japan coming in seventh between India and France.

It's true that contemporary China faces energy problems analogous to Showa-era Japan, but Japan's were much more severe. China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain), while Japan had almost literally zero domestic production.

> The US isn't seeking conflict with China, and the US is not trying to invade China or any other country. The US is simply pushing back against Chinese aggression and flagrant violations of international law. It has mutual defense treaties with a number of countries in the region (Japan, Philippines, South Korea) and has a huge economic interest in ensuring that freedom of navigation continues in international waters that are home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes.

This is a weird part of your comment. It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships.

> And it will almost certainly become a war between China and the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Philippines, etc. because other countries in the region know what's at stake if the CCP is allowed to take over the Eastern hemisphere.

Of course all those countries would prefer a constrained China. But, if the US isolates China's economy by an ocean embargo, it's effectively started a massive depression in all those countries simultaneously. They all have some reservoir of goodwill for the USA, but how long will their elected governments be able to tolerate double digit unemployment for the sake of an island they don't even recognize as a real country?

The points about China being more isolated on the world stage than the US and having severe demographic issues are accurate.

> China is today, by PPP, the largest economy in the world, with the US coming in second.

PPP has its flaws/limitations, but I don't really see your point. China has 1.4 billion people, the US 330 million. Look at GDP per capita. This reveals one of the reasons China is getting so dangerous: its ability to escape the middle income trap is looking more and more doubtful.

It's no surprise Xi is talking about "common prosperity". If he and his CCP sycophants can't deliver on their economic promises to the Chinese people, they are going to have big internal problems. The problem is that the easy gains have already been made and now China is facing a demographic cliff while it's preciously overleveraged economy is starting to show real cracks.

> China has enough domestic crude production and the ability to import it from Kazakhstan and Russia to fuel its military indefinitely (albeit at significant domestic pain)...

I'd suggest you're a little too sanguine about China's ability to maintain its oil supplies in a major conflict.

> It's unlikely that China would attack US warships in (what it sees as) its territorial waters out of nowhere. The more likely way a conflict would develop is it initiating some kind of aggression against Taiwan, which the US would respond to by shutting down that exact freedom of navigation in international waters in an attempt to starve China and its economy. As US warships enforced an embargo via threat, force, and even sinking Chinese and neutral civilian shipping, China would use that as justification for attacking US warships.

This is the weirdest part of your comment. If China attacks and tries to invade an island of 23 million people who want nothing to do with China, which has its own democratically-elected government and produces a huge part of the world's semiconductor supply, is the region and world supposed to idly stand by?

I live in Taiwan and while I have serious doubts about Taiwan's ability to defend itself, Taiwan does have the ability to retaliate and cause pain in China.

Furthermore, it's increasingly likely that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would involve Japan[1], which has a mutual defense treaty with the US. This really isn't just about the US. It's about the region. No country in Asia, save for North Korea, wants an imperial China free to take territory as it pleases.

In any case, the only people who would buy a rationale for the Chinese to attack US warships would be members of the CCP and some subset of the Chinese population. Incidentally, based on my experience living in the region, I suspect that a good number of Chinese, perhaps the majority, are not at all eager for imperial war, and that number will grow if they are forced to experience the hardships that come with imperial war.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2021/07/26/1020866539/japans-position-on...

> Look at GDP per capita.

If GDP per capita were relevant, then Luxembourg, Monaco, and Liechtenstein would be the dominant superpowers. And Taiwan would be able to defend itself from China without relying on the US. The ability to project force is only loosely correlated with economic measures, but overall GDP is the more relevant metric than anything "population corrected." And the core point remains: China is today a peer economically to the US, while Japan lagged far behind the US back during WW2.

> I'd suggest you're a little too sanguine about China's ability to maintain its oil supplies in a major conflict.

Is your suggestion that the US would start bombing civilian targets deep in the heart of mainland China (how?) to defend Taiwan? And Russian oil pipelines?

> If China attacks and tries to invade an island of 23 million people who want nothing to do with China, which has its own democratically-elected government and produces a huge part of the world's semiconductor supply, is the region and world supposed to idly stand by?

Is the claim here that countries never let bad things happen beyond their borders?

It's true that no country wants a China dominant in the region, but it's also true that no country wants a China cut off from their economies. Which puts them between a rock and a hard place. Do you think an iron miner in Western Australia is going to be happy with his house being foreclosed on because he can't pay the bills because it's all for the good cause of defending Taiwan's autonomy?

> In any case, the only people who would buy a rationale for the Chinese to attack US warships would be members of the CCP and some subset of the Chinese population.

Eh. I imagine the PRC intentionally having some ship full of medical supplies go through Malacca, ignoring US orders to stop, and then getting blown up. If you don't think the CCP can figure out a way to turn that into a nationalist uproar, you lack a sense of imagination.

My goal here is to dissuade anyone from the notion that a war between the US and China is in any way something with a preordained outcome or somehow costless for any involved party. It'd be a massive destruction of lives and wealth. If either country gets it into their head that such a war could be conducted quickly, cheaply, and easily, it increases the likelihood of war, which is something we should strive to avoid at all costs.

> If GDP per capita were relevant, then Luxembourg, Monaco, and Liechtenstein would be the dominant superpowers.

You're missing the forest for the trees. The point of looking at GDP per capita is to get a sense of where China's economic development is at for the average Chinese person.

As I have stated, China's behavior has a lot more to do with internal issues and challenges than external. Even Taiwan is largely a distraction that's a convenient tool for the CCP to manage internal politics.

China's economic situation is not as rosy as the CCP would like the world to believe. The CCP is well aware of this and certainly knows that if it doesn't deliver on its economic promises, which essentially boil down to "we'll escape the middle income trap", China will be in a very dangerous decline.

Time is running out to deliver on its promises, which is likely one of the primary reasons it's taking a much more belligerent and aggressive stance on the world stage. An economically and demographically healthy and confident country doesn't isolate itself the way China has.

> It's true that no country wants a China dominant in the region, but it's also true that no country wants a China cut off from their economies. Which puts them between a rock and a hard place. Do you think an iron miner in Western Australia is going to be happy with his house being foreclosed on because he can't pay the bills because it's all for the good cause of defending Taiwan's autonomy?

You seem to think that China's aggression stops at Taiwan. It doesn't and everyone in the region knows this.

You mentioned Australia. Australia already been subject to Chinese economic corruption and coercion for years. When Australia stated that the origins of COVID-19 should be investigated, China responded with a trade war[1]. Now CCP mouthpieces are issuing military threats against Australia[2].

Japan is another country that China is increasingly trying to bully. A CCP mouthpiece even put out a video this year that stated "We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time."[3]

Finally, on its other flank, China is increasingly provoking India[4].

This is simply not "normal" behavior for a country that genuinely seeks peace and stability. China's behavior is increasingly aggressive and highly irresponsible.

> My goal here is to dissuade anyone from the notion that a war between the US and China is in any way something with a preordained outcome or somehow costless for any involved party. It'd be a massive destruction of lives and wealth. If either country gets it into their head that such a war could be conducted quickly, cheaply, and easily, it increases the likelihood of war, which is something we should strive to avoid at all costs.

I don't think anybody here has raised this notion. I certainly haven't. Everybody knows that a hot conflict could very well result in massive losses for everyone involved.

Again, what I think your comments gloss over is the fact that the growing tension in Asia /the Indo-Pacific is a result of China's increasingly aggressive political, economic and military behavior. China is the one bullying its neighbors. China is the one engaged in a build-up of military capacity that is not merely defensive in nature. China is the one that claims territory that belongs to multiple other countries under international law and, in the case of India, is literally trying to grab land. China is the one that throws temper tantrums and sends "wolf warriors" to intimidate diplomats anytime other countries don't do what it wants. China is the one making violent threats against other countries through embarrassingly juvenile military propaganda[5].

The US isn't doing this stuff. European nations aren't doing this stuff. Taiwan isn't doing this stuff. Japan isn't doing this stuff. Australia isn't doing this stuff. India isn't doing this stuff. South Korea isn't doing this stuff. The Philippines isn't doing this stuff.

[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-03/heres-what-happened-b...

[2] https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-09-16...

[3] https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-c...

[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Why-is-China-making-a-perman...

[5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBOho1AOKYY

I feel like we're talking past each other; I agree with 90% of what you say. It's just that you're focusing on the forces drivigg China's behavior, whether China is fostering stability or not, and its broader role in the region in the 21st century, while I'm trying to anticipate exactly what would happen in a conflict over Taiwan.

Yes, China is acting as a bully. But the universal response isn't standing up to China but cowering before it. US airlines are scared to even acknowledge the existence of a place called Taiwan. When Muji accidentally labeled some hangers as "Made in Taiwan," it only took a few days before it groveled before China and begged for forgiveness. I'm 100% in agreement with you that these things are ridiculous and a sign of deep-seated insecurity on mainland China's part. But these incidents also do not make me optimistic about how regional players will react in the case of war. Businesses and the general population will be eager for the conflict to be wound down as quickly as possible, regardless of long-term strategic costs. And without a broad regional coalition strongly committed to restraining China and rolling back any gains it has made during a conflict, Taiwan is (literally) dead in the water.

Corporations are spineless. But that's not really relevant to the issue of military action.

Again, I live in Taiwan and I'm realistic about Taiwan's odds of defending itself successfully without help from the West and Japan, which I put at close to 0.

But I'm cautiously optimistic. Now that the US has removed itself from Afghanistan, there is a clear reorientation of its diplomatic and military focus to the Indo-Pacific. The US is getting closer to Taiwan, which is taking its defensive capabilities more seriously (albeit too late for comfort). Japan is basically remilitarizing and being more vocal about its willingness to counter Chinese threats. Australia is aligning itself with the US and UK to counter China. The US is even getting closer to India.

China is only going to get more dangerous as its demographic and economic situations become more precarious, but its growing isolation is the best thing under the circumstances and might be one of the only things that keeps it in check.

If it lashes out and is able to annex Taiwan, there will be significant consequences for the US and West, and the Indo-Pacific region won't be the same.

But here's my final thought: if China takes Taiwan, it will take the US down a big notch and create a lot of uncertainty for the US role globally going forward. But this event does not really pose an existential threat to the US. The US would remain a very powerful nation even after a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Certainly nobody is going to invade the US.

On the other hand, an attack on or invasion of Taiwan is an existential event for the CCP. If the CCP miscalculates in any way, it's the end of the CCP. Interestingly, even if CCP wins a battle for Taiwan, the CCP might ultimately lose the war because it's unlikely that the CCP can take Taiwan and get away with it economically and diplomatically. For a country that's already on shaky footing in these areas, it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for -- you just might get it".

This is an interesting viewpoint but somewhat at variance with my understanding. I have only started taking notice in the last few years though and I'm not studying military strategy and operations full time.

In a war in Taiwan, the US and its allies would have very long supply lines, and China very short lines. The US has to prevent an invasion in force or it loses Taiwan.*

If China can invest Taiwan with a few million troops, then the US must either destroy Taiwan, permanently losing its manufacturing capacity and making itself a pariah, or let China keep it, retain some of Taiwan's capacity through trade, and work to make China into (even more of) a pariah. The US cannot re-take the island once China is invested there without destroying it.

I don't think that Japan in WWII is a relevant analogy.

Japan in WWII had IIRC about a quarter of the manufacturing capacity of the US. China's is near parity, or larger.

Japan had and has no domestic fossil fuels (well, negligible). China is nearly self-sufficient in energy. Its current energy shortage is entirely self-inflicted, due to a desire to look "green".

The US has a long track record of obstructing the democratic process in its neighbours in Central and South America. Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Chile, ... the list does not stop there. The US routinely ignores international law when the law is inconvenient. There is no moral high ground here.

I agree with the rest of your observations. China is over the demographic cliff and its "allies" are the likes of North Korea, Rwanda or Ivory Coast. They are lukewarm allies at best.

China has always claimed Taiwan to be a renegade province, and recent actions by international bodies (the UN acceding to China's demands to remove Taiwan from lists of countries, and similar) may encourage it to think that now is the time to strike. I had believed China's leadership to be pragmatic. In 30-50 years Taiwan will be irrelevant except symbollically because Taiwan is further off the same demographic cliff as China. The US would probably let it go without fuss then.

* The economic value that is embedded in Taiwan.

> The US has a long track record of obstructing the democratic process in its neighbours in Central and South America. Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Chile, ... the list does not stop there. The US routinely ignores international law when the law is inconvenient. There is no moral high ground here.

USA in 1970-1980 had even worse moral record, which wasn't enough for Europe and Asia to not consider it the moral leader. Similarly, if today's USA actions aren't at moral high ground, China's are definitely a moral ditch, so the comparison still stands.

China is unlikely to command bigger share of world resources than USSR did at its height.