I don't think you're completely wrong, but it might be more nuanced than that. A decrease in consumption can come from less consumption, but also from more efficient consumption. Better second-hand markets for products that are fine to use a second time, longer-lasting products, less raw material needed perhaps, etc. But yeah I do expect the gains of that to be somewhat limited. Just look at how many people (especially in the USA, but also some Asian ones iirc) have an Apple device as a status symbol. They're probably going to put up with second-hand products as much as they are with Huawei phones. But that's a minority in most countries, i.e. far from everyone.