I don't think it's a fad; however, I do thing tech underestimates how culture operates in cycles. Things that are popular today often become unpopular tomorrow. This is easily observable if you study history, especially 20th century American and Western history. Everyone always thinks that the current ethos will continue forever...but it inevitably reverses itself.

Approached from this angle, I would guess that an anti-tech, anti-VR counterculture will arise in the late 2020s and last for a decade or two. VR feels like the local peak of hyper-technology-worship to me and I predict that in the coming decades, there will be more of a focus on local, offline, nature-oriented culture. Again, because this is the natural reaction to a hyper-technological culture.

I think your point on holograms is essentially correct. No one wants to wear a headset everyday to work. A pair of glasses might be better, but VR/AR will never truly take off until it's indistinguishable from real life.

Using my model above, I think we can expect VR/AR to get serious everyday use sometime by the mid 2060s, which is when it will start to be fluid enough to meld with reality.