Re:Covid Pass in Lithuania and Throughout Europe
by bryanlarsen on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @09:57PM
(#29021445)
My wife (a physician) has heard tons of stories from people who were in very strict isolation for 6, 9, 12, 15 months and then did Thanksgiving or Christmas at their kids house once, got COVID and ended up in the hospital.
In comparison you're at much higher risk than they were since you're not in isolation. COVID is endemic in the US and most of the world, so your chance of eventually getting it is approximately 100%.
Once you get it, your risk of dying is between 1 and 20 in 1000 depending on your age and risk factors. Your risk of getting long COVID is approximately 1 in 10. Most long COVID isn't chronic illness, but some is, and it's awful.
In comparison, your risk of a mild heart infection from the vaccine is less than 1 in 100,000 and any other risks are less than that.
E.g. for example, currently I calculate myself to be near people that in theory it would be possible to catch covid only around 5-6 hours per week, 3h from it outside, and 3h inside gym at times when gym is fairly empty and it's easy for me to hold a 3m+ distance from everyone. Besides that I work from home, and order everything in.
Considering everyday infection rate I can calculate from that what my chances of getting covid are based on how much I think other people on average spend around other people, or their families. This would be back of the napkin calculation, but wouldn't that be fair to assess chances of getting covid?
These may be some odd coincidences -- although personally based on my readings of those anecdotal stories I don't see how. But even if let's say they might be coincidences, how can I know for sure?
I also thought and am aware of the fact if there's a disease that is diagnosed at least e.g. 365,000 times a year and if all people would eat ice-cream once a year, then there would be 1,000 people getting that diagnosis just the next day, but I feel like the patterns are too similar for the stories I've read.