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Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by somethoughts on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @02:42AM (#29010236)
There seem to be a lot of similarities between crypto and growth stocks that are held by founders with > 15% ownership. Similar to early stage investors who have essentially zero cost basis, early BTC holders have zero cost basis when BTC was pennies each versus late stage current investors paying in at $60,000 for each BTC. For early BTC holders its easy to diamond hand.

There are a lot of similarities for sure between Tesla stock and BTC in terms of price versus traditional measures of value (based on current income and enterprise value), not to mention the volatility.

There is not as much price discovery when a handful of owners own more than 50% of stock or crypto and are easily diamond handing. The price discovery is only happening on the portion that's actively trading which can distort the market price. I bet in the early days of BTC there were a lot of tricks like the Jason Fried/DHH Basecamp unicorn example[1].

As they eventually lose interest/need to pass assets to the kids, when they start unloading, there will be price drops as there were once Bill Gates started unloading MSFT stock. Part of the challenge that Steve Ballmer faced (other than lackluster leadership) was the headwinds and downward pressure created by BillG's retirement related unloading of MSFT stock.

[1] https://signalvnoise.com/posts/1941-press-release-37signals-...

Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by discobean on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @07:12AM (#29011662)
> For early BTC holders its easy to diamond hand That's not true, say your investment of a few dollars is now $1k. And the price is popping and just dropped 30% in one day? Would you sell for the profit? What if that investment got to 10k? 100k?

People sell at some point. I'd argue it's incredibly hard to diamond hand for early holders, that is why there are more stories of people selling their coin for cheap rather than diamond hands.

Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by gomox on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @07:23AM (#29011747)
I think he meant its easy _now_. Once you are 10.000x on your investment your perspective drastically changes.
Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by gitfan86 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @08:21AM (#29012243)
The big difference between BTC and MSFT/TSLA is that successful companies have cash flow. MSFT has a dividend that it pays out every year. TSLA is eliminating debt and adding cash to its balance sheet.

If everyone stopped buying BTC and only held BTC and bought another crypto currency, BTC would go to zero since no one would be putting money in. Similar to a pyramid scheme, once there is no new money it collapses.

On the other hand, if investors decided to never buy MSFT again and sold their stock the price could go down a lot, but it couldn't go to zero because that would make the dividend yield go to infinity. If MSFT went down to $20/share it would yield over 10% a year, and it is absurd to think that no one would want to get 10% a year return.

Obviously companies can and do go bankrupt, but for this comparison I'm comparing successful crypto to successful companies.

Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by tata71 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @09:45AM (#29013200)
If every new person being born started using cryptocurrency and refused to use USD, since there is no new money, it collapses.
Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by gitfan86 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @10:55AM (#29014106)
Exactly, currencies have no cashflow. They can go up and down relative to many other things, but essentially their only value is if other people are willing to trade for other things with them.
Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by tata71 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @01:58PM (#29016704)
...the next generation trusted DOGE to the tune of 900%+ growth this year.

It feels foolish to be long USD at the moment.

Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by gitfan86 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @03:09PM (#29017680)
Why on earth would anyone be "long USD". The fed has had a policy of 1%+ inflation for decades. It is designed to go down in value over time.
Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by tata71 on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @03:11PM (#29017707)
This year it saw... 3? 6? Who knows. Also, not what I was referring to!
Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by somethoughts on Wednesday October 27, 2021 @11:27PM (#29022039)
Sorry for the late reply - yeah I was mostly talking about 2008 negative income TSLA when they only made the Tesla roadster, and no income MSFT when they made Windows 3.1 and their PE ratio was 80.

Perhaps its better to throw in some growth stocks that ended up not being particularly amazing such as WeWork, Evernote, Zynga, etc. All had low stock float, no/negative income and so were trading on emotion.

Re:Bitcoin is largely controlled by a small group of investo... by skinnymuch on Thursday October 28, 2021 @11:17PM (#29034790)
WeWork went public this week. Zynga is the big example used all the time as a huge failure. When it isn’t so bad. Evernote isn’t public. It’s been down hill for a while.

Are you talking secondary markets?