The vaccines don't prevent transmission. Now follow that to its logical conclusion: "we forcefully vaccinated everyone on Earth, why are we still having outbreaks?" Because... Well, you get it
After you sit down and mull over this concept for a while, vaccine mandates make absolutely no sense. Vaccine passports make absolutely no sense. Unless your goal is a slight reduction in ICU patients, forcing people to get it is a straight up violation of human rights.
"Pandemic of the unvaccinated" yeah, right. Blame the leaky vaccine, not the people who already have natural immunity.
All you have to do to stop the spread of a virus is lower R below 1. The vaccine would do that if we vaccinated everyone.
People vaccinated who get infected tend to have cases that do not last as long as they do in unvaccinated people, which reduces the number of people they spread it do.
If you just look at the totals for their whole population it may not look that way because you run into a Simpson's paradox situation. That's because older people are both more likely in general to have their COVID cases be severe, and older people in Israel or more likely to be vaccinated.
To illustrate, imagine a population that has 2000 young people and 2000 old people, and both groups are 50% vaccinated with a vaccine that reduces your chances of severe disease by 90%, and image we are dealing with a disease that is 20x as likely to be severe in old people than it is in young people. Let's say that 1% of young, unvaccinated people get severe disease.
Here are the number of severe cases we'd expect in that population.
If we look at the overall numbers we get 21 severe cases in vaccinated people and 210 severe cases in unvaccinated people.9.1% of severe cases would be in vaccinated people.
Now consider a population with 2000 young people and 2000 old people, with the same vaccines that reduces your chances of severe disease by 90% and where the diseases is 20x as likely to be severe in old people, but in this population 90% of the old people are vaccinated but the young are still only 50% vaccinated.
Here are the number of severe cases we'd expect in that population.
Now for the overall population we get 37 severe cases in vaccinated people and 50 severe cases in unvaccinated people.42.6% of cases would be in vaccinated people.
If the young people also get vaccinated at the same 90% rate as the old people, here are the numbers for severe cases.
That gives for the overall population 37.8 severe cases in vaccinated people and 42 in unvaccinated people.47.4% of cases would be in vaccinated people.
If no one was vaccinated, the numbers would be
for a total of 420 severe cases. 0% would be in vaccinated people.If everyone was vaccinated, the numbers would be
for a total of 42 severe cases. 100% of cases would be in vaccinated people.It is useful to look at the severe case totals in our population of 2000 young people and 2000 old people.