The problem with those insane bull cases is that the various "verticals" are mutually exclusive because they cannibalize each other.

If they ever deliver on the promises of FSD, cars will become safer, which will diminish accidents which will diminish insurance payout which will diminish revenue which will diminish insurance profits, because it's an extremely regulated business where profit margins are regulated.

If they deliver on the robotaxi promise, why would anyone buy a car themselves when they can just robotaxi everywhere? If the cars make money, why would Tesla sell the cars to people in the first place?!? And if they own all their cars, how would they make money off of insurance? The only reasonable future is that making money off your robotaxi Tesla is a pipedream, which means you can't count on that argument to drive sales.

For insurance to win, FSD has to fail. But for sales to soar, FSD has to win.

Liberty Mutual is a $16B business, Panasonic is a $30B business and financing profits and revenues are usually included in car company valuations - certainly in VW's case.

Even a successful entry into both those businesses would be 45B, or 5% of Tesla's current market cap.