The research I found from the FRED Blog tells me that "the college premium may or may not be very strong depending on birth year, family, and other inherited characteristics. When looking at the wealth premium instead of just the income premium, the college premium was weak for all races and ethnicities in the 1980s cohorts, whereas the college premium exists for cohorts in earlier decades." [0]

When we put that in the context of the conversation, it does indeed seem like non-college earnings are lower, and the advantage of going to college has lessened.

[0] Premium: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/07/is-college-still-wor...

True, but that doesn't account for higher risk and cost associated with finding or switching jobs as one's education and specialization increases. Higher wages but fewer opportunities.