Re:Why “Trusting the Science” Is Complicated
by marginalia_nu on Wednesday October 13, 2021 @11:32AM
(#28853471)
I also think misconceptions about Occam's razor are to blame. It's a good heuristic for choosing which hypotheses to test first, but a lot of people seem to misuse it as a heuristic for which of two propositions is more likely to be true, which is unfounded and very often leads to incorrect conclusions. It's basically on par with "there's no smoke without fire".
People tend to assume that if they cannot prove P and cannot prove ¬P, then ¬P must be assumed to be true. This is of course not correct at all, and most propositions can be rephrased so that Q=¬P and ¬Q=P.
If there is no evidence either way, then neither P nor ¬P is supported, and we should remain uncertain.
People tend to assume that if they cannot prove P and cannot prove ¬P, then ¬P must be assumed to be true. This is of course not correct at all, and most propositions can be rephrased so that Q=¬P and ¬Q=P.
If there is no evidence either way, then neither P nor ¬P is supported, and we should remain uncertain.