They said: "I don't have a large social circle." You need to read context a bit more carefully.

Sure, he said that, but only one of the complications are actually IN his social circle, the rest are two or more steps removed.

"My dad's coworker" - 2 steps

"my wife's brothers" - 2 steps

"My daughter's bf's friends mom" - 4 steps

"A friend" - 1 step

He might have a small social circle, but even a small circle is going to explode exponentially when you start hoping outwards. By the 4th jump, you're going to start seeing extreme numbers regardless of how small your personal social circle is.

I stand corrected. Now it makes sense that only 1 side-effect in his circle.

Thanks.