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A comment on The Plague of the Poor. Parent comment

Re:The Plague of the Poor by throwawayay02 on Sunday October 10, 2021 @11:16AM (#28819049)
Your math is wrong, see the birthday paradox. But still, unlikely.
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Re:The Plague of the Poor by cupofcoffee on Sunday October 10, 2021 @12:13PM (#28819559)
It's a back of the envelope calculation. I've a strong intuition that the precise answer isn't too far off.
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Re:The Plague of the Poor by labawi on Sunday October 10, 2021 @12:51PM (#28819879)
The math is monumentally off. It fixates on 5 specific people having issiues, instead of: There exist some 5 loosely connected people that some HN-er heard about, and probably hasn't even met all of them in person, especially the ones that died.

The implied qualification of - there exists a HN-er so divide by 1e9 to get odds - is nowhere close to accounting for the additional degrees of freedom from the social graph.

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