News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by api on Friday October 08, 2021 @08:33AM (#28798468)
I’ve seen this happen in companies with stupid projects. Same thing happened with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Anyone who dares ask questions is ignored, sidelined, or fired.

Seems to be a general pattern when there is an economic or policy “bubble” and big players in an organization or sector are holding the bag.

Everyone who holds cryptocurrency is holding Tether’s bag of poo. No they are not even the majority of money in cryptocurrency, but they are enough to prop up the price a lot given that it’s a fairly thin market. They are also structured so as to make it very easy to use their funny money to manipulate cryptocurrency price.

Their joker CEO sounds like a cutout and fall guy.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thebean11 on Friday October 08, 2021 @10:20AM (#28799584)
> Everyone who holds cryptocurrency is holding Tether’s bag of poo.

Or they recognize you can't time the market, and see upside despite a nearly-inevitable tether crash? If investors had been waiting for tether to crash they would have missed the run from $1k - $30+k, and I don't think you can claim with a straight face that was all tether manipulation. Again, can't time the market.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by wpietri on Saturday October 09, 2021 @01:17PM (#28811570)
Everybody holding a bag of poo believes there's upside. That's why they're holding it. I will grant that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is incredibly good at not just finding but creating greater fools. [1] But the fool supply is finite, and more than 10 years on cryptocurrencies still aren't good for much practical. [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28781968

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thebean11 on Saturday October 09, 2021 @04:18PM (#28812889)
If you’re criticism is based on payments you have not been paying attention to the space for the last 5 years.

Anyway, it’s easy to make a circular argument of “people buy it because they are fools, and they are fools because they buy it.” You’ll be right whether it goes up or down so there’s not much of a debate to be had..

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by wpietri on Saturday October 09, 2021 @04:33PM (#28813027)
Well I'm glad we agree that Bitcoin has failed in its original purpose. Perhaps you can set straight all the people who argue otherwise? Because there sure are a lot of them.

The trouble is, it doesn't actually have another one, not a practical one.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thebean11 on Monday October 11, 2021 @11:07AM (#28829157)
Payments is..part of the original purpose. And I think for everyday transactions Bitcoin has failed, so far. Lightning is a step in the right direction though, but it's not there in terms of UX. And volatility is obviously an issue.

If you are actually unaware, and not just arguing in bad faith, most development right now is happening on Ethereum and DeFi apps running on Ethereum. You can get collateralized loans, there are decentralized prediction markets, stuff like that.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by wpietri on Tuesday October 12, 2021 @10:13AM (#28839911)
Payment was the entirety of the original purpose. As the original paper says, "a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash". The first sentence of the introduction starts with "Commerce on the Internet" and ends with "process electronic payments". It has failed both on "peer-to-peer" and "electronic cash". It makes no material difference to internet commerce. It has signally failed in its original purpose.

And yes, more development is always happening. Success is always in the future. Never mind that M-Pesa and Venmo and Android and Tesla all started around the same time. Uber and Lyft and Twitch and TikTok all launched years later. They all have actual success. None of them are hammers blundering around in search of a nail. None of them have to keep blowing smoke about the incredible future ahead.

But in the same way that Bitcoin is making no difference today in the real-world payment markets, none of that development is making a difference today in their equivalent markets. Colateralized loans, if they work, are 0% of the total colateralized loan market. Prediction markets have existed for more than 20 years. Adding "decentralized" doesn't make them better. Most of that "innovation" is in the category of dancing bears: the impressive part is not that the bear dances well, just that it's a bear doing the dancing.

But since you can't name a purpose, I'll just tell you: The actual current purpose of the whole circus is to enable assorted grifts. When Bitcoin got popular, that's what drove it: people seeking unearned wealth, and the people preying on the suckers with money to lose. That has kept snowballing, grift upon grift and with massive effort to create more suckers to keep the grifts going just a little longer.

Are there reasonable people caught up in this? Sure. As Madoff showed, many of the people involve on both sides of a Ponzi scheme are perfectly sincere believers. But neither their belief nor their sincerity changes the underlying truth: there is no value being created. Nobody can admit that, of course, so they just claim that the value creation is just down the road if only you hodl and believe hard enough.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thebean11 on Tuesday October 12, 2021 @12:47PM (#28841915)
> Prediction markets have existed for more than 20 years. Adding "decentralized" doesn't make them better.

Prediction markets have probably existed for thousands of years, but this is where we disagree. Decentralization is a fundamental improvement to a betting market, because there is no longer a counterparty who is incentivized to cheat you when you win, or incentivized to take on so much risk that they cannot pay you back if they lose.

> Colateralized loans, if they work, are 0% of the total colateralized loan market.

You sure about that? There's nearly $100B locked in DeFi, although admittedly that's more than just collateralized loans.

You can disagree with that but the snarkyness of "you can't name a purpose" isn't necessary, I've named multiple. It's easy to find cases where a company took much longer to become successful that Uber and Lyft and ended up doing much better than both. I don't find that argument very compelling do you?

I think folks on either extreme of "cryptocurrency is going to eat the world" and "cryptocurrency is literally a trillion dollar scam" should really try to second guess themselves a bit. I think emotions get in the way a bit.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by freewilly1040 on Friday October 08, 2021 @11:05AM (#28800121)
What you describe is timing the market though? Specifically, getting in on a run with confidence you can get out before the crash.
Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thebean11 on Friday October 08, 2021 @12:18PM (#28800985)
No definitely not assuming you can get out before the crash. I'm talking about longer term investors who see the Tether crash as temporary, not a permanent end to crypto.
Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by madmax96 on Friday October 08, 2021 @10:39AM (#28799814)
> Everyone who holds cryptocurrency is holding Tether’s bag of poo

Everyone who holds Tether is holding Tether’s bag. If you don’t own tether, this doesn’t directly affect you. Most of the people I know don’t own (and have never owned) Tether.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by thephyber on Sunday October 10, 2021 @08:47PM (#28823371)
How many people who didn’t invest directly in CDOs or subprime mortgages were affected by the Great Recession in 2008?

Tether (or a substitute stablecoin) is currently a requirement for lots of the Wall Street investment in cryptocurrencies. If it turns to poo, lots of that Wall Street investment does too and it creates huge liquidity/ volume issues.

Re:Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? by mcguire on Monday October 11, 2021 @03:27PM (#28832015)
"Then, this year, Tether Holdings started putting out a huge amount of digital coins. There are now 69 billion Tethers in circulation, 48 billion of them issued this year. That means the company supposedly holds a corresponding $69 billion in real money to back the coins—an amount that would make it one of the 50 largest banks in the U.S., if it were a U.S. bank and not an unregulated offshore company."

A Tether crash would take down a lot of stuff.