That was just a matter of seasonality, and a quirk where the southern states which tend to be the least vaccinated also have late summer respiratory virus surges. Highly vaxxed Vermont has been experiencing a major surge, we might expect the same in New York although they might have a much higher proportion of naturally immune.

Southern states stay inside in the summer.

Northern states stay inside in the winter.

Kentucky and Missouri have roughly the same climate zones as most of the Northeast, thanks to their inland position. A decent chunk of Missouri is actually in a colder climate zone than the NY metropolitan area[1]!

[1]: https://basc.pnnl.gov/images/iecc-climate-zone-map

Vermont is a pretty bad example because while the numbers are up again they're still quite low - thankfully the state has never been hit terribly by the virus.

You're going to pass the last few months off on seasonality? That strains credulity.

I keep my fingers crossed that the worst of Delta is indeed over for NYC, but I don’t feel more than 50% confident. Last winter NYC experienced a huge surge before the introduction of new variants. I hope the vaccines, booster, and upcoming child vaccination will help this time around, but it is hard to predict or control this disease.