Tesla was founded in 2003, Rivian in 2009. So Tesla took five years to start Roadster production, while Rivian has taken 12 years until first customer deliveries. Maybe Rivian will ramp faster. Sam Korus tracks the numbers and so far Tesla is ramping faster than Ford, making it the fastest ramping car manufacturer in American history. I wouldn't be surprised if some Chinese companies could go faster. It is much faster than what Toyota did. They are very methodical, which is why they have almost zero pure EV sales.

> They're all in different manufacturing maturity place

That's true, but the electric car race began with the Model 3 and is going to continue to outpace Rivian 50x next year if the volume expectation are correct [on both sides]. Rivian coming out with these cars is unlikely to capture much of the market anyways, given they're both over $65k. It's like Rivian's 10 years behind Tesla in maturity (besides their range figures), and their only saving grace might be the Amazon electric delivery vehicle contract.

Established players can't produce these numbers for their own EV's so you believe a startup will?

Do people remember how much shit Tesla went through?

I think Rivian will take the startup approach and pack as much density into their battery, even if it means sacrificing a large chunk of their margin. The r1t is supposed to have a weight of 8500 pounds[0], so I can see a 150-200kwh battery being packed in there on the Max pack to achieve that range.

0: https://insideevs.com/news/536753/rivian-r1t-gvwr-heavy-duty...

That's the gross vehicle weight rating, which is the max weight of the vehicle including cargo. The R1T has a curb weight of ~7,000lbs[0] with the 135kWh battery. That is still as much as a Dually F-350. The 180kWh option would be heavier still and start eating into the payload capacity.

[0]https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133704_review-rivian-r...

200kwh? that's a disaster then.

200Kwh * 40K = 8Gwh?!

that's unrealistic, battery production is the single most limiting factor for all EV's.

big batteries = low volumes

Yes, it's probably necessary if they wanna get near-400 miles on extended range. Even the F150E with extended range only has a 300 mile EPA with estimates of 170kwh[0], and the r1t doesn't look to be insanely more aerodynamic. It's indeed going to be a disaster, but Amazon wants a foot in the door regardless of how much it costs.

0: https://insideevs.com/news/508674/battery-capacity-ford-f150...

i happened to look up the latter question. Toyota does about 10M cars/year, so this is about 10% of toyota, which is way closer than i expected.