Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant until 2022

Re:Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant un... by roenxi on Friday October 01, 2021 @08:18PM (#28724808)

I agree with the logic; it would need to be before. I'd use statistics and a team of actuarial types to try and get the numbers right. It wouldn't be perfect, nothing ever is.

Your strategy has the same problem - you have to predict how many last minute travellers there are too. If you just leave an unnecessary buffer then the strategy fails. The one of us who does a better job of putting exactly 100 bodies in 100 seats - none left over - is going to have a more profitable airline. That is somewhat core to the argument us pedant capitalists make.

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Re:Chip shortage leads carmaker Opel to shut German plant un... by Retric on Friday October 01, 2021 @09:01PM (#28725064)

I completely agree they would try and maximize revenue by selling as close to the correct amount of tickets as possible.

It’s just the math works out so on the margin having even slightly better than a 1 in 4 chance of selling at 4x the prices is a net gain. Suppose their reserving 50 seats and have a 26% chance of selling all 50, only a 50% chance of selling 20 or more.

That means on 1/2 of flights their intentionally flying with 30 or more empty seats, but reserving even 49 seats rather than 50 loses them money.

[ Parent | on HN ]