Actually a medieval person or neolithic person would have derived large future ages, because in those epochs population growth was slow and arguably not even exponential.
The fact we know there is a fast rise and possible peak in world population around 2050 means most humans born or ever to be born will be born in the years ~1700-2200. This is pure math, and an argument against it is an argument against the Copernican principle.
Re:The New Population Bomb
by ClumsyPilot on Thursday September 23, 2021 @06:07PM
(#28636212)
Yup, i got it wrong. However it seems like a statistical argument from a sample of 1, very similar to this:
Could method adequately predict extincrion of DoDo or brontasaurus?
But if a hypothetical medieval person did the same calculation based on data avaliable to him, then his answer is Y
For a hypothetical caveman it's Z, where Z is rather small.
Returning to today, X grows every day.
These results are non-sensical, seems like the base assumption is invalid: "it says that supposing that all humans are born in a random order, chances are that any one human is born roughly in the middle"