Lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data alone are unreliable

Re:Lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data... by rapind on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @10:48PM (#28624737)

So is the weather forecast though. 10% chance of rain tomorrow means, yeah it could rain. Doesn't mean it isn't useful.

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Re:Lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data... by ekianjo on Saturday September 25, 2021 @12:07AM (#28650439)

It's on the aggregate of predictions that you can see the accuracy. If my weather app tells me hundred times there is 10% change of rain but it rains 50% of the time after 100 days, it's completely useless.

Same for FiveThirtyEight. They have been massively wrong on multiple counts.

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Re:Lesson of ivermectin: meta-analyses based on summary data... by pid-1 on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @11:16PM (#28624888)

You can check rain forecast results thousands of times and estimate how often they are correct.

Assigning probabilities to events that happen infrequently (US pres. Elections, wars, end of the world...) is bullshit IMO.

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