Re:TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of C...
by bo1024 on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:13PM
(#28612445)
I think the most interesting question is how you can tell if someone is actually good vs fluctuations due to luck. I'd think it takes a long time to get statistical significance. Or, during a bull run the optimistic traders all look great for a while, but this later proves illusory.
Re:TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of C...
by duedillyio on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:48PM
(#28612633)
Truly. There's some standard approaches like beta-adjusting that can be done to put things on equal footing in different market regimes but it's only one part of what determines a stock's performance.
Testing for the significance of someone's average returns for example often can be rules of thumb. For example, given a return stream of a trading strategy, the Sharpe ratio (mean return/vol) is directly related to the t-stat of the mean return being different than 0 (mean ret / (vol/sqrt(n)). Several simplifying assumptions must be made about the distributions of returns that don't line up with reality to do the above but it's mostly a heuristic that will let you say "ah, the Sharpe is X over the last 5 years? That's significantly different enough than 0 for it to be tradeable."
Re:TikTokers Are Trading Stocks by Copying What Members of C...
by Galanwe on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:35PM
(#28612551)
You just summarized the main problem of quantitative finance: you need points to assert statistical significance. And thus why data providers with long history are paid so much.
I built something (DueDilly) that works in a similar way by monitoring the performance of Reddit user's stock recommendation and tracking how each idea performs and which users do well. You can choose to trade alongside them based on their track records.
My site: https://duedilly.io/
Previous Discussion in my Show HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28244744
There are various academic papers that also discuss it like: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3873884