Re:Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets
by RandomLensman on Wednesday September 15, 2021 @05:31PM
(#28544645)
Seconded, predictive quality of markets is not at all a given. For example, financial markets can have real arbitrage opportunities in size open that no-one removes (if capital requirements are high/volatile) - so no unique predictive state then
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Re:Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets
by AvAn12 on Wednesday September 15, 2021 @08:15PM
(#28546233)
Yes that's right. The price of a futures contract is not a prediction of the price of the underlying commodity in the future. It's simply today's clearing price between hedgers and speculators. If a hedger feels they are underhedged, they are going to buy (or sell) more of the futures contract until they feel safe, and won't really care about the impact on price of their hedging action. Likewise, speculators can bid prices way up (GameStop?) with little regard for fundamental value today or in the future. It ain't magic...