Re:Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets
by ddp26 on Wednesday September 15, 2021 @05:24PM
(#28544570)
| A lot prediction markets suffer from the fact that volatility in them is limited and that the outcome is not of interest to many people
+1. This is why I'm more interested these days in prediction markets within (large) institutions, like tech companies, universities, or government agencies.
That way, the participants have (a) a shared domain of interest, and (b) can speculate about internal, nonpublic matters.
Perhaps most importantly, if the prediction market improves the wisdom of the institution, the participants benefit - even if they aren't profitable in the market itself.
+1. This is why I'm more interested these days in prediction markets within (large) institutions, like tech companies, universities, or government agencies.
That way, the participants have (a) a shared domain of interest, and (b) can speculate about internal, nonpublic matters.
Perhaps most importantly, if the prediction market improves the wisdom of the institution, the participants benefit - even if they aren't profitable in the market itself.