Re:Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?
by nradov on Tuesday September 14, 2021 @10:52PM
(#28534670)
Two doses of the measles vaccine (MMR or MMRV) are highly sterilizing and 97% effective. That's far better than any COVID-19 vaccine, so measles isn't a valid comparison.
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/vaccination.html
Your other numbers are just made up and not worth discussing.
Re:Why doesn’t natural immunity count in the US?
by mike00632 on Tuesday September 14, 2021 @11:36PM
(#28534964)
1. We're not done making COVID-19 vaccines. For you to declare defeat so early is purely anti-vaxx bias.
2. The measles is way more contagious. It's dreadful for you to simply ignore that when it matters so much to the calculations.
You are overstating the extent to which vaccinated individuals are likely to be infectious. But more importantly, you are ignoring the importance of the network effects involved.
For x to get to z through y, x has to infect y, and y has to infect z. If probability of infectious breaktrhough and a contact event is 20%, the probability of it getting to z from x, is .2^3 = 0.008. And yet, a 20% is really high-end estimate of that likelihood. You need to both have a breakthrough infection and be in the vicinity of others for potential transmission.