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Re:The Buffett Indicator by mellavora on Monday September 13, 2021 @04:42AM (#28509124)
So you are saying that a plausible mechanism leads to a ~50% prediction accuracy?

I'm curious how this stacks up to the accuracy of other prediction methods? Off the cuff, this one doesn't seem too bad. esp given the stochastic nature of the variable being predicted.

Re:The Buffett Indicator by phreeza on Monday September 13, 2021 @04:48AM (#28509147)
"Accuracy" in statistical terms is likely even higher because that would include the predictions of "no upcoming recession".