How would that disprove a conspiracy is going on exactly? I don't personally believe this is anything more than republicans being republicans but what do the numbers have to disprove it?

The Texas restrictions on voting, I do believe are an attempt to increase vote share for that party, I don't think that's conspiratorial because the effects are direct.

But the numbers in the last election show a shift in voter sentiment, that's all.

That Texas politicians would enact an 'abortion law' specifically to 'want fewer newcomers from California' isn't something demonstrated in that data.

I don't hold politicians in high regard, but generally they are good at populism, this approach wouldn't make any sense either pragmatically or politically.