The price seems to be 500€ but per what? Per ton? Then durum wheat is 50 cents/kg so in that case it would not be the dominant factor.

> 50 cents/kg

Cheap brand pasta are barely more expensive than that (0.7-1.2€/kg), so that sounds like that's the dominant factor at least for some brands.

Bear in mind the pre-spike price was ~0.30/kg, so it comprised less than half the price of a 0.7/kg pasta brand then.

I don't think, because italy produces 70% of its durum wheat, so the price will be influenced but not totally dependent from it.

The price of wheat produced in Italy will be more or less the same as the price of wheat produced abroad, otherwise Italian producers would be losing money. But wheat price is not the main determinant of retail pasta price, which is more likely dominated by labour and distribution costs and taxes.

Apparently in 2008 the price of wheat peaked at twice its current price (https://www.ifcm.co.uk/market-data/commodities-prices/wheat), but the price of pasta hasn’t halved since then.

The price chart in the article showing the +50% rise is labeled "IT durum wheat DELFIRST". I believe the "IT" stands for "Italy", so this is already showing the effect on the Italian market.

Yes but for the imported durum wheat, that it doesn’t mean it used for Italian pasta, at least not all the pastas because on Italian brands are usi no their own fields for the durum wheat, it isn’t an importer one.

Probably the imported durum wheat is used for other things, like farina or fodder.

I’m not saying that it will not happen a price increase, a lot of people are saying it also in Italy, but a lot less than the +50%, surely.

Here’s an interview with the CEO of an Italian pasta maker (La Molisiana):

"I know that Lidl has already increased the price of pasta by 10 cents - he adds - and I expect that well before Christmas everyone will expect increases between 15 and 20 cents per package".

Translate it: https://www.leggo.it/alimentazione/news/pasta_allarme_grano_...

Down here you can find price used by producers and sellers of variuos cereals in Italy.

durum wheat is "frumento duro".

The price now is 458,00 €/T which quite high.

https://www.ismeamercati.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT...