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Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by godelski on Thursday September 09, 2021 @01:26AM (#28466568)
Responding for the parent. They are basically making predictions with S curves. Technology often starts out as really expensive but after awhile gets super cheap, following what appears to be an exponential curve (bottom of the S), before it levels off (top of the S). Yeah, look more like an integral sign or sigmoid.

But with fusion the endless claims of "too cheap to meter" are because how much energy there is in a fusion reaction. [0] We know that fission produces a lot of energy (but is expensive) but fusion produces significantly more. It also doesn't have the radiation drawbacks and so it is expected to follow the S curve (fission did initially but things changed. This is part of why France has so much nuclear).

So if (big if) fusion does follow this S curve (which there are good reasons to expect it to) then it could provide a very cheap and sustainable energy source. Yes, it is a bet, but every technology is. We won't know until we spend significant time and money into researching it. But honestly, a few billion dollars isn't that crazy for the potential upsides. We've spent that money on far greater risks with lower payout. Despite what the OP said, the money for ITER does not require international collaboration. Any rich country could do it themselves.

[0] (Fission and fusion can yield energy graph) http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/NucEne/nucbin.htm...

Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by brazzledazzle on Thursday September 09, 2021 @01:37AM (#28466633)
If we got to the point where cost wasn't a factor would the carbon footprint be extremely low? I assume at some point we'll be unable to ignore climate change and our survival will depended on minimizing it using large amounts of energy from a source that doesn't have a high carbon footprint.
Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by Terr_ on Thursday September 09, 2021 @01:47AM (#28466700)
If only ~30% of CO2 emissions are from power-plants (at least in the US, probably higher globally considering developing nations) then replacing those installations with fusion won't directly zero things out...

... But if "cost wasn't a factor" then we could just simply dedicate the electrical output of fusion plants to brute-force CO2 out of the air.

Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by parineum on Thursday September 09, 2021 @02:53AM (#28467044)
If fusion drives electricity prices into the ground, transportation is going to rapidly go electric.
Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by ben_w on Thursday September 09, 2021 @11:25AM (#28470720)
PV is already driving electricity prices into the ground, the limiting factor right now is that batteries are expensive enough that long-term savings aren’t enough to overcome the sticker-price shock at the point of sale.
Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by godelski on Thursday September 09, 2021 @01:41PM (#28472412)
If cost wasn't a factor to any energy technology then you could probably negate its carbon footprint because you could use that electricity to cheaply pull carbon from the air.

But there are other environmental impacts. Fusion, even compared to fission, has an extremely small footprint (per megawatt). Its fuel is easily available (isotopes of hydrogen). It does require some pretty advanced magnets though, so it will contribute to the strip mining that we do for rare earth materials (though this applies to all energy forms, including solar and wind). I don't have numbers to say if a fusion reactor would use less total rare earth metals per megawatt compared to something like solar or wind.

One thing to note though. Once we get sustainable fusion reactors, it will still take a bit for that cost to come down significantly. That usually takes 10-20 years. This is a pretty common pattern. We've seen it from the price of laptops and cellphones to the price of solar panels.

Re:MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion... by aaronblohowiak on Thursday September 09, 2021 @01:52AM (#28466733)
Yes. The reactor could more than pull out the carbon equivalent to its manufacture and then many many times more.