A shock or major unforeseen event could cause a shortage for a time. But we've been hearing about the dire shortage of COBOL programmers for 30 years or more haven't we? Yet in that time apparently they haven't either migrated their systems off COBOL, started paying people more, or decided they don't need to invest as much effort into it? Doesn't seem all that credible.
There aren't any significant number of people wringing their hands over it for 30 years either.
...but that's if you have "3-5 years of Experience in Cobol, IMS, DB2, JCL".
I imagine an entry-level job might pay ₹7,00,000 or so, if you can show sufficient coursework in COBOL?
edit: I made the mistake of multiplying this by 12 originally since I didn't read carefully.
Some people are surely trying to set expectations low, while others may be exaggerating what you can make with a few years of experience.
However, I've seen quite a few different sources claim an entry level developer makes around 4-10 lakh rupees a year. This makes me think they think their audience considers that good but not unbelievable.
And then when somebody claims you can make 60 lakh or more with 5 years experience, it makes me think that their audience knows roughly what US salaries are, whether or not the figure is realistic.
As such, you will see a massive salary range, anywhere from 3-60 lakhs per year. It’s hard to calculate based on experience - tenure, tech stack, or otherwise.
The lower end is dominated by body shops that take the bulk of offshored projects, since that’s exactly what Western companies want. The higher end is dominated by FAANG and VC funded startups. Moreover, the majority of companies do not have significant yearly raises, and jumping jobs is the often the only solution.
My mom knew COBOL. She retired in the 1970s. You're going to have a tough time hiring her now.