This seems like the most likely thing to happen, and there will probably be many more of the later than the former.
None of this though is obvious to me that will lead to broad based wage increases wrt cost of living out side of those exposed to sectors that are going to become increasing automated and we'll continue to see downward trend in LFP from those exposed to the later.
From whom? Not from me… i welcome it and understand that the incentives are in place to drive this, just like it really always has (like you said: "It is not like technology is standing still here").
> and that eventually most jobs at the low end of the economy will be gone.
Probably true in general, eventually at least.
> (something like a UBI will really be needed.
With our current form of governance (centralized, easily corruptible, lack of provenance/accountability in the decision making chain of bureaucracy, tendency to be opaque from the public) and resource allocation, this is untenable.
> the problem is what will we do with our labor surplus after that happens
And this cannot be a top down thing, if it is, expect heavy resistance when things start to go sideways.
> or society is in deep trouble)
This likely true imo, I think things need to get worse before they get better.
FTFY, I'm personally not interested in "binning" the future into simple extremes, and the odds of it being anything else than what is encompassed by either:
> nationalize the robots, or the capitalists will use the robots eliminate the poor people whose labor they don’t need anymore
are very high imo.
> But we all know those shareholders would quickly fall into poverty if their returns reduced.
That isn't true. Investors will simply move their capital over to other things with better returns. So restaurants will simply close down if they aren't worth running and no one is going to fund them.
> Equally if that’s not possible, the company should fold. We shouldn’t prop up companies with cheap labor, that’s just forcing the poorest in society to provide corporate well fare, and basically the same excuse that was given for preventing the abolishment of slavery.
That is the likely result. Or the companies will invest in automation to make (automated) labor costs predictable. More likely, services that are easier to automate will survive while those that aren't will not.