I agree that the actual barriers are probably lower than ever, e.g. with Scratch, Playgrounds, replit or even the browser JS console. I think the bigger issue is that the competition for (child) attention and interest is much fiercer nowadays. In the 1980s we had a few channels of fixed TV programs, maybe a handful of expensive computer/video games, LEGO and some plastic toys. Even back then, interest in programming was only for a select few.

Lets not fool ourselves, programming has a steep effort-reward curve, maybe even steeper than chess or music instruments. Nowadays it's competing against an infinite supply of deliberately tuned shallow-curved attention seekers like youtube/tiktok videos and app store quasi-games.