>This talk about "Draconian" lockdown in Australia needs to stop.

I haven't been following the lockdown laws interstate, but here in Victoria there have definitely been some restrictions that seemed to be extremely harsh and soul-crushing in comparison to their effectiveness at stopping the virus.

The 5km radius and curfew both spring to mind. I (legally) haven't been able to see a single friend or family member for almost 2 months now, even if socially distanced, wearing a mask, vaccinated and outdoors. They're all outside my 5km.

Yet at the same time a 10 year old kid can go into Woolies with 200 other people and not even need to wear a mask.

Very much agree with the 5km rule and curfew. If there is strong evidence to suggest that they are necessary than so be it but after months and months of restricting basic freedoms 'we follow the health advice' just doesn't cut it anymore.

Then what does?

Hope you’re ok mate. We’ll be vaccinated soon, hold the fort. I can’t see my family and friends either and it’s undeniably tough. But the rules do make sense, it’s just always hard to see that when they affect you.

The 5km makes it possible for them to be talking about the western suburbs being somewhat under control, and for targeted testing and messaging operations to be useful. My area has been in a lull for a bit after being in the spotlight, so I’ve checked out of keeping track —- that is a luxury in its own way. Without the 5km I don’t think I would have that reprieve from the stress.

> This talk about "Draconian" lockdown in Australia needs to stop.

Actually, telling people to stop talking is what needs to stop.

Here in Victoria we're in our 6th lockdown. 220 days of lockdown since last year. Today there were 221 covid cases reported in Victoria. 87 people in hospital - that's not a daily rate, that's total. These are not big numbers.

We have an angry Premier who yells and threatens. Together with his side-kick health officer, they condemn people for taking their kids to park or watching the sunset. [1]

When watching the sunset is considered immoral, it's time to break out the word Draconian.

We have a curfew here in Melbourne. This means everyone must visit the supermarket in reduced opening hours, increasing density in those places. There is no evidence curfews work. Mask mandates outdoors even when by yourself is another useless signalling technique. Australian authorities love their signalling and behavioral manipulation.

They love blaming the lockdowns on the community. They love their new unchallenged surveillance powers and privacy compromising backdoors. They are ecstatic about the idea of mandating apps and vaccine passports for entry to cafes and venues.

People here are vaccinated enough. A high proportion of older and vulnerable people are vaccinated. Young and healthy people would not fill the hospital beds if lockdowns ended. There may be a small surge, but it would level out, we would deal with it. Lockdowns are doing more harm than good at this point. 80% vaccination target is not a magic number from the Gods.

[1] https://headtopics.com/au/andrews-slams-sunset-lovers-breaki...

UK and Israel have proven the "vaccinate your way out of trouble" strategy doesn't work, therefore Australia's lockdown regime will not work either.

Australia is, at a massive social and economic cost, delaying death and cases. They are not preventing them.

At extremely high levels of vaccination, Australia could see 10-50 daily deaths presuming lockdown is eased. There's already prior evidence, other countries have been through this.

Vaccination is not a silver bullet, and lockdown advocates need to stop implying as such.

80% vaccination will mean thousands of daily cases.

Not to mention lockdown advocates routinely ignore the massive costs associated with the ideology, such as additional deaths (suicides, delayed medical treatment, poverty etc) and mental health (1 in 10 Victorians "seriously considered" suicide in 2020(!!!)).

Also, poverty, which will absolutely be the result of this economic destruction, has a directly link to excess mortality (mortality is >100% more likely when you're in poverty).

The recent mask study in Bangladesh comes to mind. I hazily remember it finding mask effectiveness at about 10-15%, which caused the press to proclaim that masks work. However against an exponentially growing virus this reduction amounts to a brief delay in transmission.

Happy to be corrected by someone who has looked at that study more deeply.

If lockdowns are "necessary" then there are other things like taxing unhealthy foods and dedicating the economy to produce enough N95 masks that are vastly more necessary.

1200+ cases in NSW out of a population of over 8 million.

So we should extend a strict lockdown … to do what exactly? Is the plan to manage this virus with a series of alternating lockdowns and get the number of cases to zero? Is this realistic, is this the type of world you want to live in?

The virus appears to be as contagious as chicken pox, vaccines help with serious cases but are doing little unfortunately to stop the spread. At what point do you think it would make sense to manage the disease and resume normal life instead of draconian lockdowns for a untenable goal?

Please put some effort in getting information instead of creating straw man. NSW and Victoria are in a lockdown to have time to get 70-80% of eligible population double-vaccinated. Modelling by couple of institutes show that if lockdown ends today, hospitals would be overwhelmed and lots of preventable deaths occur. By all estimates we would reach that 70-80% number in 1-3 months time, so that's the plan. Google for "Doherty Institute planning", visit https://covidlive.com.au, check daily press conference of VIC and NSW premiers - answers to your questions are in plain sight.

So the "plan" is to do what other countries have already done and didn't stop the spread? That's a bold strategy Cotton.

To answer the last question they plan to open up once double vaccination rates hit a target I think 80%. I think this makes sense.

The target will move once it hits 80%. This is so obvious I feel sorry for all of you/them

We’ve been in and come out of a lockdown before. I’m not worried.

The target is moving indeed, it's going down. NSW didn't want to lock down at all, but had to.

> but had to

Why?

"Unvaccinated people in New South Wales could be barred from locations and denied movement freedoms even after the state achieves 80% double dose vaccination"

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/13/nsw-u...

> the premier, Gladys Berejiklian, warning vaccine-hesitant residents they will not be able to “let everybody else do the hard work and then turn up” for equal freedoms.

> “I just want to send the very strong message that don’t assume you’ll get everything that vaccinated people get at 80%.”

Vaccine apartheid. Enjoy ! I'm glad I visited long ago

per day*

To be clear, that's 1200 cases in one day. There are currently 26907 active cases in NSW.

The goal of the lockdown is to keep new case numbers as low as possible so a greater percentage of the population has the chance to be vaccinated. Nobody is suggesting it's going to zero. Living with Covid, as you suggest, is the end goal. You're advocating for the current plan.