Re:New Orleans levees passed their first major test
by nknezek on Sunday September 05, 2021 @06:18PM
(#28428325)
1.41m by 2100 is the projection for “Grand Isle”, the closest location in the model to New Orleans. Sea level and sea level rise is not uniform worldwide, so local predictions are very important. This is also true for temperature and other climate change impacts, and is one of the biggest improvements in the latest IPCC report.
It looks like all model scenarios agree fairly well out to 2100 both in the global projections and in projections for Grand Isle. Thus, I’d wager good money that New Orleans will see 1-2m sea level rise by 2100 regardless of any climate mitigations we perform.
Re:New Orleans levees passed their first major test
by selimthegrim on Sunday September 05, 2021 @06:56PM
(#28428549)
Grand Isle (which Ida did a number on) is well south of NOLA in Jefferson Parish, and not part of the metro area. It exists for fishing and tourism.
No. Not sure where 1.41m is coming from. Take a closer look at the linked NASA site. You will need to click on the link labled "View global projection" (sorry, there isn't a direct link). You will see a graph labeled "Projected Sea-Level Rise Under Different SSP Scenarios". The midpoint highest rise of all seven of the scenarios for 2100 is just .88 meters and that's for the most pessimistic SSP5-8.5 Low Confidence scenario. The more likely scenarios are about 1-2 feet.
Your great-grandkids will be fine.