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Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by kragen on Friday September 03, 2021 @02:49PM (#28407881)
Given a really effective intervention for a contagious disease, the effectiveness on a community level will be much lower on an individual level. Think about PRC vs. USA: 4636 deaths in PRC, 618591 deaths in USA, even though it's a four times smaller country. There is no measure that even comes close to reducing your risk of death from covid by a factor of 600 on an individual level, but because they were able to get the R number down below 1, they stopped the epidemic.

Normally you would expect effective contagion control measures to have an exponentially larger effect at a societal level than it does at an individual level, even if you don't reach the critical threshold to stop the epidemic: if you can drop R from 2.0 to 1.9, that reduces your individual risk by 5%, but it also reduces the number of cases in the next generation by 5%, the number of cases in the generation after that by 10%, the number of cases in the generation after that by 14%, etc. After 20 generations of transmission you've reduced the number of cases by 64%, which reduces everyone's infection risk by 64%. Of course, with such a high exponential growth rate, that only means that people get infected 1.6 generations later at that point, but if you're comparing different communities at the same time, the difference is about 3:1.

So it seems like probably the effectiveness of the mask on an individual level was truly tiny.

Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by 908B64B197 on Friday September 03, 2021 @02:59PM (#28407982)
> Think about PRC vs. USA: 4636 deaths in PRC, 618591 deaths in USA, even though it's a four times smaller country.

4636 deaths as reported by the CCP to foreign journalists. Same party whose official line is that nothing happened in Tiananmen Square.

Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by kragen on Friday September 03, 2021 @09:16PM (#28411227)
This is nonsense, partisan propaganda masquerading as rational thought. Nevertheless, there are many countries that had similarly effective infection control, so even if you choose to believe your hate for China instead of the best unbiased assessments, check out New Zealand, Vietnam, ROC, Thailand, or Australia.
Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by slg on Friday September 03, 2021 @03:26PM (#28408289)
>Normally you would expect effective contagion control measures to have an exponentially larger effect at a societal level than it does at an individual level

Isn't this dependent on the assumption that the risks are reduced uniformly across society? Lockdowns/quarantines are the obvious counterexample. Someone going into complete lockdown reduces their risk to practically zero. However a small group of people doing that won't have much effect on the societal numbers. Therefore the societal reduction is much less than the individual reduction until that R value drops low enough.

Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by gunapologist99 on Friday September 03, 2021 @03:20PM (#28408239)
> 4636 deaths in PRC

That number is completely laughable. It's literally communist propaganda.

Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by Marsymars on Friday September 03, 2021 @08:38PM (#28411048)
I have no particular insight into that particular number, but it isn't believable that covid has been broadly circulating in China uncontrolled for the past two years, and there isn't much middle ground between "uncontrolled spread" and the media-reported state of affairs.
Re:Surgical masks reduce Covid-19 spread, large-scale Stanfo... by kragen on Tuesday September 07, 2021 @12:47AM (#28441030)
I come to HN for intelligent discussion, not xenophobic conspiracy theories so far-fetched no intelligent person could believe in them.