I think you've misread what conclusion you're supposed to draw from this kind of assessment.

For both the hedge funds and this the conclusion isn't that the job is impossible - but that we lack the tools to predict who will do the job. You can't know which hedge fund will outperform (though some will) and we don't seem to be able to predict which AI models will perform well enough to use. Also that your odds of picking a winner "from the field" are quite bad.

It doesn't mean there's anything wrong with using a hedge fund - but there's a level of risk that one shouldn't ignore.

Like, my conclusion from this is that I would not accept a pure AI solution (because most of them are bad), but I would be interested in AI assistance. For many people, the promise is in replacing not supplementing doctors and this is the same as failure.

Oh no, that could be the conclusion. Ever study quantum physics? Lots of people have tried to come up with some kind of model with inner "hidden" variables that tries to make HEP physics into a completely deterministic, almost classical, theory. By your logic, if we just trained and AI with enough subatomic interactions, it would eventually be able to predict with 100% accuracy the results of a quantum process.

That's utter bunk.

Markets are the same way: people think there must be some rules that can be worked out to make them 100% predictable, when in reality there is an element randomness that makes cryptographers jealous. It will never be possible to predict the next number in a random process. If you flip a coin 99 times and get 99 heads, you still can't predict what the 100th toss will be (and before someone "well ackshually"s with something about an unfair coin: don't)

I mean, the job certainly could be impossible, but those studies don't prove it. As it relates to the discussion at hand we know that we can do better at evaluating mammography because humans do it.

Maybe I am not understanding what you are saying?

So 2 of the 36 were better than one radiologist, none were better than two radiologists collaborating.