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Re:Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich? by bryanlarsen on Sunday August 29, 2021 @08:47PM (#28351852)
Predicting high inflation while interest rates are low seems crazy to me. The Fed can and will raise interest rates, causing inflation to moderate.

High interest rates will devastate parts of the economy, but that's a different and more well known problem.

Re:Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich? by raydalio0705 on Monday August 30, 2021 @08:50AM (#28355111)
Can the Fed raise interest rates significantly without bankrupting the Federal government?

The Federal debt needs to be rolled over every now and then. At certain interest rates, the costs of servicing the debt become unacceptably high. Where is that 'breaking point'? If you see some serious analysis of this, please let me know.

But there is a higher bound to which the Fed can feasibly raise interest rates. So it is possible that the Fed will be forced to choose between keeping rates low, keep buying Treasuries and destroy the dollar through runaway inflation, or raise interest rates and bankrupt the US government.

Re:Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich? by jfengel on Monday August 30, 2021 @02:34PM (#28359219)
The Fed doesn't set bond interest rates. Rates on bonds are set by an auction. If bond interest rates are low, it's because bond investors want bonds. Which is to say, they think the US government will have no trouble paying them back. So the government borrows cheaply, and investors believe they will be able to continue to.

The Fed sets a different rate, one that banks use to lend money to each other. It forms kind of a floor for lending. They raise it to reduce lending, and thus slowing down the economy in general (and thus reducing inflation).

They've kept the latter at nearly zero -- arguably for the not-great reason of propping up assets. If anything, raising that would make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, dropping the interest rate further. Instead, we've gotten inflation, but only in the asset markets, not consumer inflation.

They actually wanted consumer inflation to be higher, so that consumers would be forced to put their money in asset markets rather than holding it in cash. They've finally gotten their wish, though it's likely that it is due more to pandemic-related shutdowns than to monetary-based demand.

Re:Ask HN: It seems like everyone is getting rich? by raydalio0705 on Tuesday August 31, 2021 @04:37AM (#28365295)
But the Fed is doing QE, which is buying longer maturity treasuries, creating artificial demand, which lowers interest rates.

Short-term treasuries and the fed rate are also directly related. Increase the fed fund rate, and short-term treasury interest rates will have to go up as well to remain competitive.